Something’s been on my mind lately.

BTC.D, a leading indicator for many, has been in an uptrend for a while now. Expectations have been shattered, leaving plenty of traders surprised.

The ETFs have introduced a massive wave of demand, pushing BTC.D significantly higher than it likely would have been without them. Price action, of course, isn’t just a matter of technicals, supply is being actively removed from the market, and demand is pouring in.

That alone makes comparing this cycle to previous ones tricky. If you’re setting BTC.D targets purely based on past cycles, without factoring in ETF net inflows, you’re likely missing a key piece of the puzzle.

Now, with alts being present and BTC.D being a reflection of BTC’s market cap relative to the total crypto market cap, we need to zoom out.

If TOTAL2 (altcoin market cap) has remained relatively stable (or went up) while BTC.D continues climbing, that tells us BTC’s dominance is being driven by its own growth rather than an overall decline in alt market cap. AKA (partially) due to the ETFs inflow, and that’s a crucial distinction.

Also worth noting: USDT.D isn’t impacted by ETFs the same way BTC.D is, since those flows are primarily coming from traditional finance. Yet if USDT.D hasn’t shown a significant drop, the money flowing into $BTC isn’t coming from the crypto market either, and it might be still to come?

Put all of this together, and it suggests there’s still plenty of retail money yet to enter BTC. That explains why alts have been bleeding, why another leg lower is still on the table, and why pairs like ETH/BTC are struggling. BTC will always be in the spotlight, whether we like it or not.

Curious to hear thoughts from some people I really respect in the space:

This isn’t some ultra-complex thesis, just a perspective worth considering. And no, I’m not posting charts. The point here isn’t to stare at lines on a screen but to think about the bigger picture.