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Today I saw someone staring at whale address screenshots and wanting to follow the trade.
Let me pour some cold water first: what you see as "buy" might just be the other side opening a short, or adding liquidity to the LP for hedging, not the kind of all-in position building.
People think that when whales move, it’s the steering wheel; in reality, it’s more like seat belts + bumpers.
Especially recently, some regions are tightening taxes and compliance rules, sometimes increasing, sometimes relaxing, causing deposit and withdrawal expectations to change.
Whales prefer to move back and forth on-chain or split their positions, appearing lively on the surface but actually feeling very timid inside.
Anyway, when I see large transfers now, I first ask myself: are they adding to their position, or reducing volatility…
If I don’t understand, I do less; don’t mistake others’ hedging for your faith.