a16z: Understand the future evolution of stablecoins through 9 images

Writing: Robert Hackett, Jeremy Zhang, a16z crypto

Translation: Chopper, Foresight News

For years, stablecoins have been searching for their core positioning.

Initially, they were just a trading tool used to transfer US dollar assets between major exchanges. Subsequently, stablecoins evolved into a savings instrument, becoming an asset held long-term rather than for daily spending. Today, all data points to a new development direction: stablecoins are becoming a core global financial infrastructure.

The following nine charts illustrate the underlying trends driving this transformation.

Regulatory implementation accelerates market growth

During most stages of stablecoin development, regulatory uncertainty long limited institutional capital entry. With the implementation of the GENIUS Act, the regulatory framework is becoming clearer. The act is not the origin of industry trends but has accelerated their development.

Changes in stablecoin trading volume before and after the GENIUS Act passage

The U.S. established a federal-level stablecoin issuance regulation framework through the GENIUS Act. Data clearly confirms the policy impact: in the quarters before the act, stablecoin trading volume had been steadily rising; after the act took effect, growth further accelerated, reaching approximately $4.5 trillion in the first quarter of 2026.

MiCA promotes the non-USD stablecoin market

The European crypto asset regulation framework, the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA), presents a more complex picture. After full implementation at the end of 2024, several major exchanges delisted USDT due to compliance reasons, directly causing a short-term surge in non-USD stablecoin trading volume, peaking at over $40 billion.

Subsequently, market trading volume stabilized, with the overall base significantly higher than before MiCA’s implementation, maintaining monthly transaction scales between $15 billion and $25 billion. The new regulatory rules have created a previously almost nonexistent demand market for non-USD stablecoins.

Stablecoin commercial payment scenarios continue to expand

Perhaps the most significant structural change in the market is how people actually use stablecoins.

Stablecoin commercial payments are concentrated in C2C (consumer-to-consumer) transactions

In terms of transaction count, peer-to-peer (C2C) transactions far lead, reaching 789.5 million transactions in 2025. Meanwhile, consumer-to-business (C2B) transactions are growing the fastest, increasing from 124.9 million in 2024 to 284.6 million in 2025, a 128% year-over-year increase.

Growth trend of stablecoin payment card infrastructure

Data from stablecoin payment cards, relying on Rain technology (including Etherfi Cash, Kast, Wallbit, etc.), also confirms this trend.

Monthly collateral deposits for stablecoin payment card projects surged from nearly zero in November 2024 to over $300 million per month by early 2026. Although these funds are collateral guarantees for payments rather than direct stablecoin spending, their growth curve is highly representative: stablecoin commercial payment scenarios are experiencing a full-scale rise.

Stablecoin circulation velocity significantly increases

The turnover frequency of each dollar of stablecoin is accelerating.

Trend of stablecoin circulation velocity

Since early 2024, the circulation velocity of stablecoins (adjusted monthly transfer volume ÷ market cap) has nearly doubled, rising from 2.6 times to 6 times. The faster circulation velocity indicates that the growth in stablecoin transaction demand has outpaced new issuance, greatly improving the utilization efficiency of existing funds.

This is also a core feature of mature payment networks: the underlying currency is used at high frequency rather than passively held.

Shift in transaction structure, payment attributes become prominent

Excluding behaviors such as trading, fund flows, and exchange mechanisms (which constitute most stablecoin transactions), the estimated payment volume among different participants last year was between $350 billion and $550 billion.

B2B stablecoin payments dominate

Business-to-business (B2B) remains the main force in stablecoin payments, maintaining the largest share. Meanwhile, segments like peer-to-peer transfers and merchant transactions are rapidly expanding.

High geographic concentration of stablecoin payments

From a geographic perspective, stablecoin payment activity is unevenly distributed.

Asia is the main region for stablecoin payments

Nearly two-thirds of transaction volume comes from Asia, mainly from Singapore, Hong Kong, and Japan.

North America accounts for about a quarter, Europe around 13%. Latin America and Africa combined are very small, totaling less than $1 billion overall.

Domestic stablecoins operate on global underlying networks

The rise of non-USD stablecoins is not unique to Europe; emerging markets are also rapidly adopting them, driven by different logic.

Monthly transfer volume of the Brazil Real-pegged stablecoin BRLA

Brazil is a vivid example. The monthly transaction volume of the Brazil Real-backed stablecoin BRLA grew from nearly zero at the start of 2023 to about $400 million by early 2026, greatly boosted by integration with Brazil’s instant payment network PIX.

The cross-border payment attribute of stablecoins is weakening

Long considered a cross-border tool, the proportion of cross-border transactions is steadily declining.

Domestic transactions now account for about 50% at the start of 2024, rising to nearly 70% by early 2026. This change sends a clear signal: the core value of stablecoins is no longer limited to cross-border remittances and foreign exchange conversions; they are gradually transforming into localized daily payment tools based on the global underlying network.

Summary

Combining all data, a clear industry landscape has taken shape, quite different from previous public expectations: many believed the core value of stablecoins centered on cross-border transfers. The reality is quite the opposite—stablecoins are becoming deeply localized. While USD stablecoins still dominate, non-USD stablecoins backed by local fiat currencies like the euro and Brazilian real are steadily increasing their market share.

Although P2P transfers remain the largest use case, the proportion of daily commercial payments is steadily rising.

Quarterly data continuously confirms: stablecoins are gradually evolving into a universal public payment infrastructure. They are inherently global, but their real-world applications are becoming increasingly local.

The industry is still in early stages, but the final form and development pattern of stablecoins are becoming increasingly clear.