I am following this debate happening among experts about the patterns in the crypto market and honestly, the analysis is quite interesting. Some people truly believe that this crypto bull run is still far from over, and I don’t find that unreasonable.

Looking at what happened before, in 2017 and 2021, I notice that the actual peaks always had very specific characteristics. When the market really exploded upward, there was euphoria, influencers pumping, inexperienced investors chasing quick gains. It was basically optimistic chaos.

Now, looking at the current dynamics, things are very different. Social media is full of pessimism, the sentiment is cautious, not exuberant. And that is exactly the opposite of what we usually see at peaks. Fear tends to appear during corrections, not at the final top. Euphoria, on the other hand, is a sign of exhaustion.

An experienced trader I follow mentioned that he lived through 2017, survived 2021, and is now seeing 2026 unfold. And he was very direct: bull markets never die from fear. Never. And he’s right when he analyzes that this maximum impulse of the cycle has not yet happened.

What’s happening now is very specific. There’s a whale reducing its position, there’s short-term selling pressure, but that’s not changing the long-term demand. There’s an investor following that traditional 4-year cycle model who has already exited, thinking a decline was coming. But check this out: this wave of selling is approaching exhaustion.

If the selling pressure continues to decrease and institutional accumulation persists, then the market could turn to appreciation driven by demand. Some strategists are pointing out that the first quarter of this year could be critical, with potential for accelerated movements if sentiment improves.

The 5-year supercycle underway could bring new all-time highs in the first half of the year. For those following this crypto bull run, the current preparation is to understand that the selling exhaustion might be near. The market psychology is completely different from previous peaks. I’m not seeing that uncontrolled optimism that marks the end of cycles. I see caution, I see fear. And for those who understand cycles, that’s a sign that there’s still room to run.