These days, I see in the group chat again people linking "stablecoin supply increase = about to take off" and "ETF inflows = definitely bullish," tying them together. Honestly, the correlation is pretty easy to see, but causality isn't so straightforward to conclude. A lot of money is just off-chain waiting and gradually entering or exiting, or even just changing shells and staying in stablecoins, not on-chain or deep in the market waters.

I myself now treat it more like practice: when I see an indicator, I pause first and ask, "Is this the evidence I want to find"... Don’t rush to draw conclusions. By the way, I want to complain about the modularization and the narrative around the DA layer—developers are hyped up, but users are completely confused. In the end, trading still depends on emotions. Anyway, I just keep an eye on gas and block packing pace; congestion means someone is really pushing at the door, and if there's no smoke, I just assume it's the wind.