Evening Market Outlook

Bitcoin hourly chart is about to break out of the triangle consolidation pattern. If it can effectively break through and hold above the 74,929 resistance level, the upside target could reach around the spike high of 75,500. As long as the price remains above 74,929, the rebound trend will continue; but if it cannot break through the key resistance at 76,237, the current rise is only a rebound, and a true trend reversal will only occur with a breakout above this level, potentially challenging 77,573 and the previous high of 78,283.

Do not chase the highs or sell at the lows; an upward move does not necessarily mean a reversal, and a decline does not mean a crash. The support level at 73,537 has been tested and held four times effectively. Previously, after pulling back to this level, the price rose to 78,283; with this support again holding, according to trend rules, the rebound is likely to test the previous high of 78,283. If it can break through, the upward trend will continue; if it hits resistance and stalls, it will test the 73,537 support again. The prerequisite for testing the previous high is to first break through the 76,237 resistance.

Strategy

- A volume breakout above 75,263 can be followed long on the right side; a volume breakdown below 74,589 with a failed rebound can be followed short on the right side, with strict stop-loss settings.
- If the hourly chart stabilizes above 75,263, the target is 76,260-77,412; if it cannot stay above, the upward move is invalid.
- If the 4-hour chart breaks below 74,483, the target is 73,677-72,019.

Although the 4-hour chart has broken below the Fibonacci 78.6% strong support, it is supported by the 61.8% level and the yellow bullish trend line, providing double support. Without significant negative news, a break below is very unlikely. For the 4-hour chart to turn downward, it must first break below the 61.8% support, then look toward the 50% and 38.2% levels. If it rebounds and stabilizes above the 78.6% level, the upward trend will continue, and breaking the previous high could lead to new highs, with volume changes being a key focus.