First point (Iran delays retaliation but issues tough talk): The conflict has not eased, only postponed; there is a slight short-term recovery, but medium- and long-term risks remain, and the market will not buy it.

Second point (Strait of Hormuz traffic difficult to resume): The oil passage remains tense, boosting inflation and risk aversion sentiment; Bitcoin will be pressured along with risk assets.
Key observation: Whether the US and Iran escalate clashes, and the actual traffic situation in the strait, will determine whether the market sharply drops or consolidates sideways. $BTC #布伦特原油持续走强