What will the China-U.S. Iran conflict lead to next?

On April 8, the U.S. and Iran reached a two-week temporary ceasefire, originally set to expire this Wednesday.
At present, the conflict is in a critical window. Trump has announced that the U.S. negotiation team will travel to Pakistan to begin the second round of talks, while the U.S. military has already seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran says this action seriously violates the ceasefire.
Trump has publicly threatened: If Iran does not accept the U.S. conditions, the U.S. will strike its civilian infrastructure (power plants, bridges, oil facilities). Iran has not yet officially confirmed whether it will attend, but the strait has repeatedly been opened and closed, and global oil tankers are once again being held up.
Here are three possible scenarios next:
1. Successful negotiations extend the ceasefire! Both sides have an intention to limit losses. The U.S. doesn’t want to get stuck in the Middle East long-term, and U.S. military inventories are tight. Iran’s economy has already been badly damaged, and a temporary agreement to reopen the strait could be reached, cooling the conflict.
2. Near-term stalemate + small-scale friction! The strait continues to be semi-closed, the U.S. continues a limited blockade, and both sides trade words while avoiding a full escalation—dragging things into next week.
The worst-case scenario: Iran refuses to negotiate + Trump carries out his threats, reigniting the conflict.
Is this good or bad for the crypto market? My personal view is slightly bearish in the short term: geopolitical tensions lift oil prices, putting global risk assets under pressure. Bitcoin is currently trading in the $73,000–$75,000 range, making several modest pullbacks in response to tense-news headlines. The total market capitalization of crypto overall also fluctuates with oil prices.
But in the medium to long term, it could be a potential big positive: past experience shows that once a ceasefire takes effect or the strait reopens, oil prices fall quickly, risk appetite rebounds in an instant, and Bitcoin has previously surged 4–5% in a single day, with total market cap jumping by $70 billion. Bitcoin has repeatedly shown resilience amid uncertainty. If this round of talks goes smoothly, Bitcoin will likely return to the $75,000–$80,000 range, and altcoins following suit could rise even more aggressively.
Short-term volatility is high, so keep your position size lighter; however, since Iran has not yet officially confirmed attendance, once substantive progress appears in the negotiations after it does attend, it will immediately become a major rebound window. And with both the U.S. and Iran currently eager to find a way to step down, positives are on the way—manage your positions well, and opportunities lie in the volatility!
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