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Just stumbled on this fascinating breakdown of what happened to the biggest companies that had their IPO in 2015. Honestly, it's a pretty sobering read if you're thinking about jumping into IPO investing.
So here's the thing - back in 2015, only 152 companies went public in the US, raising about $25.2 billion total. Way down from the year before when 244 companies hit the market. But when you look at the 10 biggest ones from that year, the results are... mixed at best.
I mean, some did okay. TransUnion was up 39% a year later, Blue Buffalo gained 24%, and Ferrari actually managed to climb 12% above its IPO price. But then you've got the real disasters. TerraForm Global lost over 75% of its value. Fitbit got absolutely hammered, down 63% as smartwatches took off and the wearables market cooled. Even First Data, which raised the most money that year at $2.6 billion, was down 10% from its offering price.
The pipeline companies were particularly rough. Columbia Pipeline Partners was down 26% from its IPO price, and Tallgrass Energy GP dropped 11%. Energy sector stuff just got crushed by falling oil and gas prices.
What struck me most was the overall pattern - of the 10 biggest IPOs from 2015, only four were actually showing gains a year later. Four out of ten. And most of those gains only happened because the broader market recovered later in 2016. Even buyout offers didn't always help companies get back to their IPO prices.
It's a pretty good reminder why so many people say don't chase IPOs. The data just keeps showing that newly public companies often struggle in that first year. Lock-up periods end, institutional investors start taking profits, and the initial hype wears off. Better move is probably to wait and see how these companies actually perform before jumping in.