This Middle East drama is more exciting than a TV series.

On Friday, news just broke that Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a temporary ceasefire. Hezbollah is willing to gradually lay down its arms, and Iran seized the moment to announce that it will open the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil instantly plunged from $99 to $86, and the world finally let out a breath of relief.
As it turns out, Iran then turned around and accused the U.S. of breaking faith, and it reimposed a blockade on the strait. Trump went off: Iran opened fire targeting ships from the UK and France, threatening to destroy their power plants and bridges. Losing $500 million a day—neither side can take it.
What’s interesting is that there are reports saying the U.S. is willing to unfreeze $20 billion in exchange for Iran giving up uranium enrichment, and the two sides may have already talked it through quite a bit. Now you block the strait and I threaten—this looks more like acting: one calls to report to his wife, the other draws K-line charts to apply pressure.
The louder the shouting, the more it shows that hope is still there. If they really were going to break up, they would’ve stopped making noise long ago.
The core point is: both sides don’t want to fight anymore. If oil prices fall back, the Federal Reserve can cut interest rates, and we can all breathe easier too. Just wait and see—this drama is almost wrapped up.