Reviewing the Iraq and Iran wars, there are clearly 5 insiders around Trump who profit from inside information.

Title: Analyzing the US-Iran War, Five Clear Insider Figures Around Trump Profiting from Inside Information

Author: Liu Kaiwen

Source:

Repost: Mars Finance

“Insiders” are probably a love-hate existence for investors. Love, because if you can keep up with their rhythm, it’s like knowing the answer in advance; hate, because you can never see the cards they hold.

However, even the most well-informed insiders have their limitations in the stock market. You know the US is planning to strike Iran, but how much specific military stocks will rise, when they will rise, and whether macro sentiment will hit them in the middle are all uncontrollable variables.

Today, we will discuss five insiders who, without considering the target assets, entry timing, or even worrying about exposing their identities, made $1.3 million through just a few trades exploiting information asymmetry. Some were trading half an hour before the start of the US-Israel-Iran conflict, and others used two trades to compound a 20-fold profit.

Their “cash-out channels” come from Polymarket, a prediction market platform based on blockchain’s anonymous features. Unlike trading stocks or commodities, the market trades on whether “this event will happen.”

Knowing in advance that “Trump will negotiate with Iran next week,” the lowest-risk profit method is to predict with others that “the US and Iran will definitely negotiate next week.”

Today, we will analyze data from five accounts to see why their profiles match the characteristics of “insiders.”

$20k capital, two trades, twenty times compounded returns

Since 2026, three particularly notable geopolitical trading events have emerged on Polymarket: Maduro’s arrest, US-Israel joint action against Iran, and Iran and the US announcing a ceasefire. These three events have contributed a total trading volume of $860 million on the platform.

The five accounts we mention today profited immensely by continuously “betting” on these shocking geopolitical events in a very short period. For example, Account 1 successfully predicted the timing of the US-Israel-Iran conflict with $20,000, then re-committed all-in on a bet for Iran and the US to cease fire, earning $400k for a 20-fold profit.

More intriguingly, these accounts were registered in December 2025 and February this year: one before Maduro’s arrest, and the other just before this round of US-Israel-Iran conflict. Yet, they participated in only a few markets on the platform, seemingly just to engage in bets they knew they would win.

If the registration date, low number of trades, and high profits are not enough to prove their insider profile, then the two following points are truly suspicious.

“Small bets for fun, big bets because I know I can’t lose”

One of the biggest differences between gamblers and insiders is that insiders know the outcome of their bets, so they dare to bet heavily on certain events. The characteristics shown by these five accounts perfectly illustrate their distinction from gamblers.

By calculating the proportion of each account’s investment in these three events relative to their total investment, it’s clear that, although their investment amounts vary, their ratios are highly consistent. Even Account 2, the most dispersed in behavior, has 93% of its funds bet on related markets.

This level of concentration is statistically abnormal. Even focused geopolitical analysts or speculative traders usually diversify across a dozen or more markets to manage uncertainty. These five accounts seem to have chosen a few targets and poured almost all their chips into them, with other markets being unimportant.

Predicting the market 21 minutes before the conflict starts

If capital concentration is the outline of their profile, then the timing of their position-building is the most direct evidence.

Around 14:20 Beijing time on February 28, Iran’s capital Tehran heard explosions, and Israel announced an attack on Iran. At the same time, the market probability of “Will the US strike Iran before February 28?” shot up from 20% to 99%, then settled.

Among the three accounts participating in this market, two placed bets on “Yes” on the day of the attack, with Account 3’s first bet occurring 21 minutes before the attack. This bet quadrupled in half an hour.

The scenario of the market “Will the US and Iran cease fire before April 15?” is even more astonishing. Three accounts had already bought the “Yes” option half a month before the ceasefire, and their positions shrank by over 80% in the following two weeks amid escalating tensions.

In early April, while most macro analysts and think tanks claimed “conflict will escalate to ground war,” these three accounts invested more funds, confidently believing a ceasefire would be reached within the next two weeks.

At 06:32 on April 8 Beijing time, Trump posted on Truth Social announcing a ceasefire, with the probability jumping from 20% to 100%. These three accounts profited nearly $750k from this ceasefire.

Losses instead confirm insider profiles

These five accounts are not invulnerable—Accounts 3 and 4 lost money on the market “Will Maduro step down in 2025?” At first glance, this loss might seem enough to clear them of being insiders.

But if we consider Trump’s media interview the day after Maduro’s arrest, this loss actually confirms their insider profiles.

On January 4, 2026, Trump told Fox News that the US military originally planned to carry out an operation in Venezuela on December 29, 2025, but due to weather windows, they waited several days, finally executing it on January 3.

In other words, if the weather had cooperated, Maduro would have been arrested in 2025, and the question “Will Maduro step down in 2025?” would have settled as “Yes.” The $12k loss for these two accounts would have turned into over $400k profit.

They lost because of weather, not because they misjudged the event. Knowing Maduro was unlikely to escape fate, they continued betting on “Maduro will step down before January 31, 2026,” ultimately earning nearly $300k.

Precedent exists: someone was arrested for insider trading

This is not the first time someone has used military insider information on Polymarket for arbitrage.

In June 2025, Israel launched a 12-day military operation against Iran. Afterwards, Israeli authorities investigated and prosecuted two men: an Israeli Air Force reserve major and his civilian accomplice.

According to the indictment, as Israeli fighters were about to take off to strike Iran, the major informed his accomplice, who then bought relevant markets on Polymarket and profited about $163k from this bet.

The current US-Venezuela incident also attracted the attention of US law enforcement. According to Fortune, several suspicious accounts involved in the US-Venezuela case drew the attention of the Southern District of New York, which later met with Polymarket representatives to discuss “potential misconduct.”

Congressman Ritchie Torres subsequently proposed legislation to restrict government employees from trading in political event contracts. While no public charges have been announced yet, federal investigation itself indicates this is not an isolated coincidence.

The Israeli arrest case has already confirmed one thing: some people brought military insider information to Polymarket, and some face prosecution because of it. The five accounts analyzed here present a more systematic version—new accounts, highly concentrated funds, exceptionally precise entry timing, and full withdrawal after event settlement.

Rather than discussing the legal risks these insiders might face, as observers, there is another potential opportunity: when insider funds flow into prediction markets, the market prices themselves become signals, allowing us to glimpse the future before events even happen.