I just noticed that Bitcoin is under significant pressure—on Monday it fell to around $73,900, a drop of nearly 1% over 24 hours. The weekend rally we saw after the political shifts in Iran has mostly vanished again. Ether is also losing ground by about 2%, Solana is down 3%, and XRP follows with a loss of more than 1%.

The real problem is the oil market. Brent oil surged massively—at one point even 13%, and now stabilizing around a 6.4% rise. This is the biggest jump since the Russian invasion of Oekraïne. The Strait of Hormuz is practically closed, so the world is worried about oil supply. This drives inflation fears, which means Fed rate cuts might be postponed. And that is bad for risky assets like crypto.

The traditional markets tell the story—Asian stocks -1.4%, U.S. futures -0.7%, and gold rising instead to $5,350 per ounce. Crypto simply follows along with this risk aversion.

Some traders say that the downside could be limited because Iran has been isolated from the global financial systems for years. OPEC and the U.S. can increase their production to keep oil prices stable. But until the Strait of Hormuz reopens and it is clear what the next step is, crypto will simply remain a risky asset in a more and more riskier world. Everything now comes down to that oil market and how long this tension lasts.