If you look at social media metrics now, the term 'altseason' has dropped to its lowest level in the past two years. This could actually be a pretty interesting signal.

Why? Because historically, when retail investors are tired and stop talking about altseason, that's actually when whales start quietly accumulating. This pattern can be seen from two years ago—every time the altseason buzz spikes, it usually signals a local peak. Conversely, quiet periods are always followed by rallies.

Right now, the situation is tough for altcoins. Dogecoin has fallen about 75% from its cycle peak, Solana has lost more than 60%, Cardano has dropped over 70%. Capital is rotating into Bitcoin and stablecoins, not into low market cap tokens. Who would be excited after holding altcoins through such a drawdown?

Retail sentiment is truly exhausted. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index spent most of February and March between 'fear' and 'extreme fear.' The Coinbase Premium Index has remained negative for over 40 consecutive days, indicating that retail interest in the US is even absent for Bitcoin, let alone more speculative assets. Google Trends for 'best crypto to buy' is flat, while searches for 'bitcoin to zero' hit record highs in the US.

But on-chain data tells a different story. Bitcoin wallets holding 100+ BTC approached 20,000 for the first time at the end of February. Large holders are accumulating during the decline. This shows that those managing large assets know what they’re doing—they’re not panicking, they’re adding to their positions.

Of course, on-chain data doesn’t directly mean a rally will happen soon. The Iran conflict still puts pressure on the global financial markets. Altcoins need Bitcoin to stabilize first before rotating into higher-risk assets. Conditions for an altseason aren’t there yet, but sentiment is already prepared.

FYI, XRP briefly dropped sharply from around $1.36 to $1.33 with high volume, indicating aggressive selling pressure. The current price is below the $1.35 resistance level, which is the same zone as the $1.40–$1.41 range that has repeatedly limited upward movement.