Lately, this wave of crypto market gains has been really strong. To put it simply, it’s the sentiment repair brought by the easing of hostilities. As the overall mood grows more and more “dovish,” the geopolitical tensions that were triggered by the U.S.-Iran conflict have actually already been gradually digested by the market.

But the issue is that the “peace” now is mostly something said out loud, and hasn’t truly landed. The “yellow-haired guy” is essentially pre-announcing good news, letting the market rise first.

So next, the key is really to watch a few core points: the enrichment of uranium issue—have both sides truly reached a deal? The game over passage through the straits—has there been any substantive easing?

If you keep your focus on these two points, then the situation will be very clear.

If the second round of negotiations still can’t reach agreement on these key issues,
then this rally is very likely just sentiment exhaustion. Once the reversal comes and the market turns, it won’t be gentle—a likely emotional, retaliatory sell-off could follow.
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