Good morning, I am Tong Ge

Bitcoin surged high and then pulled back, confirming a false breakout pattern $BTC

Yesterday's high was 76,094, currently consolidating between 74,000-74,500.
It failed to hold above 76k, a textbook false breakout.

Volume analysis from two perspectives:

Good:
- 15-minute spot volume increased by 27%, futures by 33%, on-chain inflow of 3,050 BTC triggered buy orders

Bad:
- ETF net outflow of $194.5 million (the largest in over two weeks), institutions fleeing at high levels, retail chasing → distribution phase

Funding situation:
- 670 million liquidated in 24 hours, short positions amounting to 527 million
- Funding rate has been negative for 46 consecutive days (first time since FTX), negative funding rate + rising open interest = crowded shorts, but only consider short covering if volume stabilizes above 76k

Trading strategy

Primarily shorting on rallies:

Entry:
- Light short positions at 74,700-75,500

Stop-loss:
- Exit if it stabilizes above 76k

First target: 74,000
Second target: 73,000

Waiting for bullish signals on dips:

- Buy on increased volume after retesting 73,000-73,500 and showing signs of stabilization

Or chase longs on increased volume if it stabilizes above 76k on the right side