$BTC Following the U.S. March core PPI year-on-year increase of 3.8%, below the expected 4.2%, market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have intensified, and risk appetite has fully rebounded. Diplomatic contacts between the U.S. and Iran have sent positive signals, pushing Bitcoin intraday briefly up to $76,000, the highest since February 6, with Ethereum surging over 8% in a single day, leading mainstream assets.

As of Beijing time in the morning, Bitcoin is around $74,266, up 1.22% from the previous day; Ethereum is about $2,314, up 2.12% from the previous day. Both showed significant pullbacks after the surge, indicating increased selling pressure at high levels.

Bitcoin broke above the ascending triangle's upper boundary of $73,000 on Tuesday and successfully reclaimed the critical support zone of $75,000—where the 100-day moving average intersects with the simple moving average. More importantly, the daily chart confirmed a breakout of a 7-month-long downtrend line, and is now attempting to hold above the $74,000 resistance turned support zone.

In the short term, the previous stair-step rally was supported by strong buying, with shallow pullbacks and higher lows, indicating a healthy bullish trend; however, continuous pressure in the $76,000 range, without corresponding volume expansion, suggests diminishing upward momentum.

Key support and resistance:
Core support: 73,500–74,000, a retest zone after trendline breakout, ETF average cost basis
Secondary support: 71,500–72,200, next support zone if core support fails
Key resistance: 76,000–76,200, yesterday’s resistance zone encountered during the surge, needs volume breakout
Medium-term target: 80,000 (psychological level) → 89,050, calculated from the ascending triangle target (about 18% above current levels)

Currently, the daily RSI is around 63, having rebounded significantly from the February 6 low of 15 but not yet entered overbought territory. If the daily close can stay above the $75,000 moving average zone, it will further confirm the breakout pattern, with the next target at the psychological $80,000 level.

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Ethereum started a unilateral rally yesterday from $2,174, reaching a high of $2,415 before pulling back, retracing most of the intraday gains, and now oscillating around $2,300. The 1-hour Bollinger Bands are tightening, with the price breaking below the middle band and approaching the lower band and MA30 support levels. MACD remains below zero with increasing volume, and the fast and slow lines are diverging downward in a death cross. KDJ and RSI are both trending downward toward oversold zones, indicating a short-term correction. The 4-hour Bollinger Bands are opening, MACD volume is decreasing above zero, and the fast and slow lines are converging, with KDJ and RSI showing signs of turning from high levels.

Key support and resistance:

Core support: 2,280–2,300, the daily EMA80 support level, yesterday’s high retest zone
Secondary support: 2,170–2,200, the previous low, critical line if core support fails
Key resistance: 2,400–2,419, yesterday’s high, short-term strong resistance zone
Medium-term target: if resistance at 2,400 is broken, the next core target is 2,700

The current market is caught between the forces of "end-of-tax-season sell-off" and "macro liquidity improvement + technical breakout." Bitwise CIO describes it as a "compressed spring"—once the tax-related selling pressure subsides after April 15, the market could rebound by 5% to 8%. Historical data shows that since 2013, Bitcoin has closed higher in April nine times, with a median monthly gain of 7.1%.

However, the macro environment in 2026 differs from previous years: oil prices remain above $100 per barrel, Federal Reserve policy directions are uncertain, and U.S.-Iran tensions are highly unpredictable. Analysts warn that the current rebound is more likely a stage of bear market rally, and a significant catalyst is needed to break through $78,000 effectively.

Short-term focus: market liquidity flow after April 15 tax deadline, substantive progress in U.S.-Iran second round negotiations, the effectiveness of the $74,000 support, and whether Ethereum can hold above $2,300.