Market Strategy Tips (April 14 — April 15, from yesterday to today)

Market Analysis
From yesterday to today (April 14 — April 15), the market is in a resonant phase of “expectation of the second round of US-Iran negotiations heating up + Federal Reserve signals of easing inflation + global risk appetite fully recovering.” Gold has stabilized above the $4,700 level and continues to rebound, approaching the historic high of $4,800, showing a pattern of solid bottom support, marginal warming of bullish sentiment, and a relatively strong oscillation; the crypto market is also rising strongly, with Bitcoin breaking through $76,000 to reach a nearly one-month high, mainstream coins surging across the board, driven by continuous institutional capital inflows and short covering, forming a strong upward trend.
Macro News
1. The core trading logic of the market has shifted to a “marginal loosening of Federal Reserve policy expectations + decreased tail risks of geopolitical conflicts + phased easing of stagflation concerns,” with a clear warming of expectations for rate cuts within the year. On April 14, U.S. time, the Federal Reserve released the Beige Book, showing that U.S. economic activity expanded slightly, the labor market cooled down, and inflation pressures generally eased in most regions, providing room for policy adjustments. The CME FedWatch tool indicates that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining rates in April and June remains over 97%, but the probability of rate cuts in September has risen to 48%, with a 72% chance of one rate cut this year, significantly reducing the expectation of no cuts. Regarding the Middle East situation, the White House confirmed constructive progress in the first round of indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran, with both sides agreeing to hold a second high-level meeting in Islamabad on April 16. Market expectations for a ceasefire extension have increased, and tail risks of geopolitical conflict have decreased marginally; however, Iran has not relaxed control over the Strait of Hormuz, and Brent crude oil remains high at $108–$110 per barrel, with stagflation concerns still not fully alleviated. The dollar index retreated from 104.8 to 104.3, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell back to 4.31%, weakening the macro pressure on non-yield assets like gold and cryptocurrencies. Global risk appetite continues to recover, with all three major U.S. stock indices closing higher.
2. After stabilizing at a key support level, gold rebounded strongly, approaching a new high, with macro pressures easing and institutional capital flowing back, creating a resonant rise. International spot gold opened yesterday at $4,685, then continued to rise unilaterally, reaching a high of $4,792, approaching the $4,800 historic high. Currently, in the Asian session, it is quoted at $4,767.52 per ounce, a 24-hour increase of 1.75%. COMEX gold futures also strengthened, reaching a high of $4,812, with the latest at $4,792.9, up 0.53% intraday. In the domestic market, Shanghai Gold main contract is at ¥1,050.42 per gram, up 0.79%; Gold T+D is at ¥1,049.42 per gram, up 0.79%; mainstream brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang maintain retail prices around ¥1,445–¥1,450 per gram. The core drivers of this round of rally are: first, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book signals easing inflation, with both the dollar and U.S. bonds retreating, significantly reducing macro pressure on gold; second, uncertainties in U.S.-Iran negotiations persist, and geopolitical safe-haven demand provides a bottom support for gold prices; third, the long-term logic of central banks continuing to buy gold remains unchanged, with the World Gold Council data showing a 18% year-on-year increase in global central bank net gold purchases in Q1, with physical demand in the $4,650–$4,700 range supporting strongly. On the capital side, the world’s largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, increased holdings by 2.37 tons on April 14, to 1,058.11 tons, ending a series of net outflows, indicating a clear marginal return of institutional funds. Key current levels: core support at $4,720–$4,750 (top-bottom support), strong support at $4,680–$4,700 (breakout zone and key pivot), core resistance at $4,780–$4,800, and strong resistance at $4,850 (historic high zone).
3. The crypto market has experienced a unilateral surge, with Bitcoin breaking through $76,000 to reach a stage high, driven by institutional capital inflows and short covering, forming a triple upward momentum. Bitcoin opened yesterday at $71,450, then continued to rise strongly, breaking through $72,000, $74,000, and $76,000 successively, reaching a high of $76,016.7, a nearly one-month high. Currently, it is quoted at $75,850, up over 6% in 24 hours. Ethereum also surged, reaching a high of $2,415, latest at $2,390, up over 9% in 24 hours. Mainstream coins like SOL and DOGE also rose over 8%, with market bullish sentiment fully erupting. Regarding on-chain data: Bitcoin spot ETF net inflow on April 14 was $236 million, a near two-week high, with Fidelity’s FBTC net inflow at $158 million, and Grayscale’s GBTC net outflow narrowed to $8.9 million, indicating significant institutional capital return. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) disclosed that from April 6 to 12, it accumulated an additional 4,871 BTC, with total holdings surpassing 767k BTC, providing ongoing support. The 24-hour liquidation in the derivatives market was 102k traders, with total liquidation of $214 million, of which 82% were short positions, with short covering being the main driver of the rally. On-chain data shows exchange BTC net outflows exceeding 28k coins in a day, a two-month high, with whale addresses below $72,000 actively accumulating, and large transfers of thousands of coins increasing their holdings to 78%. Long-term holding addresses remain at a high of 63%, with very limited underlying selling pressure. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index has risen to 58, entering a neutral to slightly optimistic zone, with market sentiment fully recovering. Technically, the daily chart successfully broke through the strong resistance at $73,000, opening the mid-term upward trend, with only the $78,000–$80,000 zone facing significant historical resistance.
Special Reminder
Gold has now approached the $4,800 historic high, with bullish sentiment continuing to warm, but the high-interest rate environment of the Federal Reserve has not fundamentally changed. The $4,800 level and above are heavily pressured, and short-term volatility risks are significantly increased. Do not blindly chase highs, beware of rapid pullbacks caused by profit-taking among bulls; it is recommended to operate with light positions, try small long positions on dips to the support zone of $4,720–$4,750, with strict stop-loss at $4,680, and take profits or reduce positions when rebounding to the $4,780–$4,800 zone, maintaining strict control over positions to avoid extreme high-level volatility.
The current strong rally in cryptocurrencies has broken through previous major resistance levels, with the mid-term upward trend fully opened and market sentiment fully recovered. However, after a large short-term increase, a technical correction is likely, and the risk of chasing high above $76,000 is significantly increased. It is strictly forbidden to hold heavy positions or go all-in; position sizes should be kept within 40%. Only after the price stabilizes above the support zone of $73,000–$74,000 should you consider gradually adding positions. If the price again effectively falls below $73,000, short-term correction risks should be watched carefully, profits should be locked in, and high-level retracement risks should be prioritized.