It’s been a while since I last made a pancake and issued a pancake. Since the recent decline, this is the third time I’ve gone to test the pressure level around 74. From the chart, it’s very clear that the 74-79.2 range is the consolidation zone of that big drop in late January and early February. Back then, the support turned into the current resistance—meaning that when the bull market returns, the 8w integer level will be a key checkpoint.

From early March until now, every time this area is touched, the strength of the move and the market backdrop have been different. The first time was purely a technical rebound test; the second time borrowed momentum from the ceasefire news, but it didn’t manage to hold; and this third time came up under the background of the blockade of the strait plus oil prices breaking $100. In other words, with worse macro conditions, the price is actually stronger—this in itself shows that selling pressure is gradually running out.
Going forward, the blue-box area above may repeatedly be probed, while the green-box area may become support. Only by continuously digesting sell orders upward and consuming buy orders downward, and completing a turnover, can it finally hold.
In short, the “pancake” approach isn’t much different from gold, silver, and oil—it’s all driven by the war’s tempo. The difference is that the underlying fundamentals of gold, silver, and oil are more solid, while pancakes are more tilted toward changes in liquidity in the capital flow.