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#加密市场回升
Pause period of 20 years vs short-term compromise? Do you think Iran will make a key concession?
My personal judgment is that the likelihood of Iran making a critical concession in the short term is low, but there is limited tactical room for compromise.
On one hand, the maritime blockade imposed by the U.S. can be considered extreme pressure—intercepting all ships entering and leaving Iranian ports, directly cutting off oil revenue lifelines. On the day negotiations broke down, WTI crude oil surged to $105.53 per barrel. But sanctions are a double-edged sword; blocking the Strait of Hormuz would impact nearly 20% of global oil transportation, and rising oil prices would ultimately backfire on the U.S. economy. UK Prime Minister Sunak explicitly does not support it, and France has even organized a "Multinational Peace Operation." The significant divisions among allies greatly weaken the actual deterrent effect of the blockade.
On the other hand, Iran’s "Resistance Economics" has been tested multiple times, and the chances of capitulation in the short term are low. However, Trump plans to visit China in mid-May, and the U.S. is reluctant to involve China in the conflict, making it unlikely to intercept Chinese oil tankers—this objectively leaves a gap for Iran’s crude oil to continue exporting through Chinese channels. The subsequent negotiation window remains open, with the next direct talks possibly scheduled for April 16 in Islamabad. Iran may show a cooperative stance on minor issues, but substantial concessions on core interests like nuclear issues are basically unlikely.
How much do you see as the "ceiling" of this rebound?
Currently, this rebound is more driven by emotional recovery and is a short-term market trend, with a limited "ceiling."
From the perspective of the crypto market itself, BTC has broken through $74,000, with a 24-hour increase of 4.51%; ETH rose by 7.56%; the DeFi sector overall increased by 5%, with Aave surging 10.75% and Lido DAO nearly 10%. Market confidence is boosted by expectations of a U.S.-Iran agreement, leading to rapid capital inflows into high-beta assets. However, a closer look reveals that a real agreement is still far off. The ceasefire period is only two weeks, serving as a tactical window rather than lasting peace, and the bottom-line gap between both sides remains huge.
In terms of liquidity environment, high oil prices are pushing inflation expectations higher, and the Federal Reserve’s room to cut interest rates is continuously shrinking. CME FedWatch data shows that the market prices only about a 21% chance of rate cuts before the end of this year. Under tightening liquidity expectations, crypto assets, as high-beta instruments, face severe challenges to sustained rebound.
In the short term, BTC faces psychological resistance around $75,000–$76,000. If substantial progress is announced in the April 16 negotiations, the market may surge again; otherwise, if the blockade continues and oil prices further rise above $110, risk assets will come under renewed pressure. Overall, the upper limit of this rebound is around $78,000, with a more probable scenario being oscillation between $75,000 and $78,000 before waiting for a new direction.
How should the allocation ratios of crude oil, crypto assets, and precious metals be dynamically adjusted amid changing circumstances?
In the current highly uncertain U.S.-Iran situation, it is recommended to adopt a "core + satellite" allocation approach, dividing assets into three tiers and dynamically adjusting weights.
First tier: Crude oil—current core allocation.
As long as the Strait of Hormuz blockade persists, the fundamental support for oil prices remains very strong. WTI crude has already rebounded above $97, with some periods surpassing $100. If the strait remains closed, JPMorgan predicts that by around April 20, global inventories will be exhausted, and oil prices are likely to further spike. It is recommended to allocate 30%–35% of the total portfolio to oil-related assets, prioritizing liquid oil ETFs or oil & gas sector stocks.
Second tier: Gold—long-term hedge, but limited short-term flexibility.
Gold has both safe-haven and inflation-hedging properties, but currently, the market focus is on rising oil prices suppressing the Fed’s monetary policy, which weakens gold’s short-term appeal. From a long-term perspective, continuous central bank purchases and waning confidence in fiat currencies provide structural support. It is suggested to allocate 15%–20% to gold, mainly physical gold or gold ETFs, as an "insurance" against extreme scenarios.
Third tier: Cryptocurrencies—high-beta, flexible assets, mainly for swing trading.
Crypto assets are currently highly correlated with tech stocks like the Nasdaq and are extremely sensitive to liquidity and market sentiment. If oil prices continue to rise above $110, liquidity will tighten further, and the crypto market will face greater downward pressure. It is recommended to allocate no more than 15%–20% to crypto assets, mainly BTC, ETH, and other mainstream coins, with strict leverage control and stop-loss measures. Swing strategies of reducing positions during rebounds and accumulating on dips are more effective in the current volatile market.
Dynamic adjustment principles: Keep an eye on three core variables—(1) the results of the Islamabad negotiations on April 16 (which directly influence sentiment), (2) whether oil prices break above $110 (affecting liquidity expectations), and (3) statements from Federal Reserve officials. If oil prices break above $110 and persist, it is prudent to reduce crypto and equity holdings and increase gold allocation; if negotiations unexpectedly make progress and oil prices fall below $90, risk asset proportions can be increased to seize rebound opportunities.
Pause period of 20 years vs. short-term compromise? Do you think Iran will make key concessions?
My personal view is that Iran is less likely to make key concessions in the short term, but there is some limited tactical space for compromise.
On one hand, the maritime blockade launched by the U.S. can be described as extreme pressure—intercepting all ships entering or leaving Iranian ports, directly cutting off the lifeline of oil revenues. On the day negotiations broke down, WTI crude oil surged to $105.53 per barrel. But sanctions are a double-edged sword: blocking the Strait of Hormuz would disrupt nearly 20% of global oil transportation, and the resulting spike in oil prices would ultimately boomerang back on the U.S. economy itself. British Prime Minister Starmer has clearly stated that he does not support it. France even set up its own effort to organize a “Multinational Peace Operation.” Deep disagreements among allies greatly weaken the blockade’s actual deterrent effect.
On the other hand, Iran’s “resistance economics” has been tested many times already, and it is unlikely that it would give in in the short term. However, Trump has plans to visit China in mid-May. The U.S. does not want China to be pulled into the conflict, and it is also unlikely to intercept Chinese oil tankers—this objectively leaves a gap for Iran’s crude oil to keep being exported via China. The subsequent negotiation window remains open, and the next round of direct talks may be held on April 16 in Islamabad. The Iranian side may show cooperation on small-scope issues, but on core interests such as the nuclear issue, substantial concessions are basically out of the question.
How much do you see as the “ceiling” of this rebound?
This rebound right now is mainly a phase market driven by emotion-driven repair, and the “ceiling” is limited.
From the crypto market itself, BTC has broken above $74,000, with a 24-hour gain of 4.51%; ETH is up 7.56%; and the DeFi sector as a whole is up 5%, with Aave surging 10.75% and Lido DAO up nearly 10%. Market confidence has been boosted by rising expectations that the U.S. and Iran will reach an agreement, leading to quick capital inflows into high-beta assets. But if you break it down carefully, you can see that the actual implementation of an agreement is still far off. The ceasefire period is only two weeks—a tactical window rather than lasting peace—and the gap between both sides’ bottom lines remains huge.
From the liquidity environment, elevated oil prices are pushing up inflation expectations, and the room for the Federal Reserve to cut rates is being continuously squeezed. CME FedWatch shows that the probability the market assigns to rate cuts before the end of this year is only about 21%. With expectations of tighter liquidity, crypto assets as high-beta instruments face severe challenges to the sustainability of the rebound.
In the short term, BTC faces a psychological resistance zone at $75,000–$76,000. If substantial progress is reported in the next round of talks on April 16, the market may surge again; conversely, if the blockade persists and oil prices climb further to above $110, risk assets will face renewed pressure. Overall, the upper limit of this rebound is roughly around $78,000. The more likely scenario is range-bound volatility between $75,000 and $78,000, followed by waiting for a new direction to be chosen.
Given changes in the situation, how should the allocation ratios for crude oil, crypto assets, and precious metals be dynamically adjusted?
Against the backdrop of the current highly uncertain U.S.-Iran situation, it is recommended to adopt a “core + satellite” allocation approach: divide assets into three tiers and dynamically adjust the weights.
First tier: Crude oil— the core allocation direction for the current stage.
As long as the Strait of Hormuz blockade continues, the fundamental support for oil prices will be extremely solid. WTI crude oil has already returned above $97, and in some periods it has broken above $100. If the strait keeps closed, JPMorgan expects that global inventories will be completely exhausted around April 20; at that point, oil prices will very likely make another push higher. It is recommended that crude-oil-related assets account for 30%–35% of total positions, prioritizing oil ETFs with strong liquidity or oil and gas sector targets.
Second tier: Gold— a ballast for long-term safe-haven needs, but with insufficient short-term upside.
Gold has both safe-haven and inflation-hedging attributes, but the current market focus is that the rise in oil prices is suppressing the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. This weakens gold’s attractiveness in the short term. From a long-term perspective, persistent purchases by global central banks and weakening confidence in fiat currency provide structural support. It is recommended that gold allocation be 15%–20%, mainly in physical gold or gold ETFs, as “insurance” against extreme scenarios.
Third tier: Crypto assets— high-beta, flexible instruments, mainly for swing trading.
Crypto assets are currently highly correlated with technology stocks such as the Nasdaq, making them extremely sensitive to liquidity and market sentiment. If oil prices keep climbing to above $110, liquidity will tighten further, and the crypto market will face greater downside pressure. It is recommended that crypto asset allocation not exceed 15%–20%, and be mainly concentrated in mainstream assets such as BTC and ETH. Strictly control leverage and set up stop-loss protection. In the current choppy market, swing-trading strategies such as trimming into rebounds and buying on pullbacks are more effective.
Principles for dynamic adjustment: Watch three key variables—the April 16 negotiation outcome in Islamabad (which directly determines the direction of sentiment), whether oil prices break above $110 (which affects liquidity expectations), and the communication style of statements by Federal Reserve officials. If oil prices break above $110 and stay there, promptly reduce allocations to crypto and equity assets and increase gold. If negotiations unexpectedly deliver a breakthrough and oil prices fall to below $90, you can moderately increase the proportion of risk assets and seize the rebound window.