I saw an interesting analysis of Bitcoin’s current MVRV Z-Score right now. The indicator is at -2.28, which is frankly extremely low compared to the troughs we saw in 2018 and 2022. This means the market price is really below what it should be, in theory, based on the on-chain realized value.

What’s special this time is the influence of ETFs. With all that institutional capital flowing in, the cost basis has risen, which makes the MVRV Z-Score more sensitive to price movements. So technically, to confirm a move out of this pressure zone, we’d need to see the Z-Score climb back above -1.5, with Bitcoin holding above 71K.

But here’s the interesting part: the NUPL indicator, which measures sentiment, is at 0.197. It’s in the “hope” zone—not yet in panic. During the real lows (December 2018, March 2020, November 2022), NUPL turned negative, meaning net losses for most holders. We’re far from that now. Most people are still up on paper, even though confidence has clearly taken a hit.

So the MVRV Z-Score is screaming extreme, but market sentiment isn’t really following. It’s a somewhat contradictory signal, but above all it shows that panic isn’t here yet.