#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 US-Iran talks collapse—views on the market impact

This weekend, representatives from the US and Iran sat across from each other at the negotiation table in Islamabad. In the end, both sides returned home with grim faces, with no agreement signed, but plenty of harsh words were thrown around. US Vice President Vance said, “There’s simply no way to make it work,” while an Iranian representative directly scolded the US as “too greedy.”
Honestly, no one was really surprised by this outcome. Before the negotiations even began, the two leaders were already hyping domestically that “we have already won,” and the conditions they laid out were totally mismatched—like speaking different languages. From the very start, this negotiation looked more like a political performance staged for audiences at home and abroad.
What’s interesting is that while the two sides traded barbs, another drama was unfolding over the Persian Gulf. A US warship tried to approach the Strait of Hormuz, and Iranian small boats immediately surrounded it. The two sides then held a standoff at sea for a while, and in the end the US warship turned around and left.
The US said it was there to “mine-sweep,” while Iran said, “If you dare go any further, we will fire.” Even more dramatically, the Iranian negotiation representative relayed a message through an intermediary on the spot: “If your ships don’t withdraw, we’ll act within half an hour—there’s no point in talking about this negotiation anymore!”
This incident reveals a key piece of information: the US now really has no way to deal with the Strait of Hormuz. Iran doesn’t need any high-tech weapons. Just tossing a few sea mines and flying a few drones could cost only tens of thousands of dollars, yet it may be enough to scare insurance companies into refusing coverage and make ship owners afraid to set sail. The strait is still open in name, but in reality it’s been semi-paralyzed.
But what’s interesting is that for financial markets, this negotiation breakdown might not necessarily be a bad thing.
In the Middle East, don’t expect true peace in the short term. But now things have changed a bit—after this round of contest, the “rules of the game” between the US and Iran have gradually become clearer.
What financial markets fear most isn’t bad news, but rather “not knowing what will happen.” Previously, everyone worried that if both sides went off the deep end and “lost their tempers,” what if they blew up oil fields, oil pipelines, and ports. Now this bottom line has been drawn: civilian energy facilities must not be touched.
It’s like two people fighting. At first, they might have been able to use knives, but now they’ve agreed they’re only allowed to use fists. They may still fight, but the probability of someone getting killed is much lower. For the market, this is good news.
Just look at the oil price trend to understand the logic. A few days ago, rumors came out that a ceasefire might be possible. Within a day, oil prices plunged by 20%, crashing from above $110 per barrel to around $95.
Why did it fall so sharply? Because in the previous upswing, a large portion of the rise was “panic premium”—everyone was worried that the strait would be blocked for the long term, so they priced in the worst-case scenario in advance. Now it turns out the “worst-case” is basically just that. Naturally, the extra “fear fee” collected earlier has to be paid back.
Some people say Trump is playing a long game, deliberately dragging things out with Iran to cripple the Middle East oil-producing countries so the US can dominate the market. That idea is a bit naive.
What the US needs most right now are two things: first, to maintain its lead in the AI race; second, to bring down high interest rates and ease debt pressure. If it keeps耗ing with Iran like this, global inflation won’t come down, and the US Federal Reserve won’t dare to cut rates. Meanwhile, financing costs for US businesses stay high—doesn’t that mean digging its own grave?
More importantly, the US’s credibility in the Middle East is currently eroding. Previously, Gulf countries felt it was worth paying protection fees. But now they can see the US can’t even handle a strait—so they must be thinking twice. After this commotion, the proportion of Middle East countries selling oil to China and settling in renminbi has risen to 41%, while the share of the US dollar has fallen to 52%. And just a few years ago, the US dollar still held an absolute dominant position of over 90%. The foundation of this “oil dollar” is starting to loosen.
Every great power has its cycle and will make strategic mistakes. The US has made plenty of errors over the years, but because of its sheer size, it can absorb the trouble. However, the situation now is that it is stepping on the accelerator on the way downhill, shouting “from victory to victory.” This can only accelerate the depletion of its own reserves.
For investors, the path ahead has become fairly clear: the game between the US and Iran will continue, and fighting while negotiating will become the norm. Oil prices may oscillate back and forth between $80 and $120, making it difficult to return to the low levels of the past, but the kind of violent spikes that would happen on a whim like before will likely become less frequent.
The world is moving from a unipolar era where “the US calls the shots” toward a new pattern of multiparty games. The old order is loosening, and a new balance is forming. In this process, there will be chaos and uncertainty—but new opportunities will also emerge.