I see that Bitcoin and the markets have rebounded after a strong sell-off at the start of the week due to tensions in the Middle East. BTC reached nearly $74K on Wednesday but dropped again to $65K because of geopolitical risks. Now it has settled at $71.70K with a +7.35% gain for the week.

The problem is that bonds are not convinced. The 10-year Treasury yield rose from 3.93% to 4.15% in just four days, and the two-year also increased from 3.37% to 3.60%. This indicates that traders are rethinking inflation outlooks, especially as energy prices rose following Iran-Israel tensions.

Strong US economic data adds further pressure. The ISM Services index hit 56.1, and the ADP payroll showed 63K jobs in February — the strongest reading since July 2025. As a result, Fed rate cut expectations have decreased. Previously, there was an 80% chance of two 25bp cuts this year; now, the odds are less than 50-50.

The energy shock from geopolitical conflict is typically slow-moving in the economy, so yields may remain high next week. Oil prices usually increase by 20-30% within about 60 days after major shocks. This creates a risky setup for crypto and stocks if inflation pressures continue.

Meanwhile, XRP dropped to $1.33 due to heavy selling volume — aggressive liquidations rather than thin liquidity. I saw the price dip to the $1.35 level with significant volume. The current market setup is interesting, but caution is needed given the bond uncertainty.