So, here’s the thing: the era of cheap money that we’ve enjoyed for over a decade seems to be truly over. The Iran conflict isn’t just about geopolitics; it’s opening our eyes to something much more serious: the vulnerability of the global energy market that could turn inflation into a permanent “floor.”

If we think the impact is just temporary until the conflict subsides, we might be very wrong. Energy experts are starting to warn that countries will shift into defensive mode, prioritizing energy independence and supply security. The result? The once open and efficient energy markets will now become fragmented—an unavoidable new reality we have to accept. Major countries—China, India, Japan, South Korea—are beginning to develop more isolative energy strategies.

According to energy expert Anas Alhajji, this de-globalization trend will lead the capitalist economy in a completely different direction. Instead of relying on market efficiency and global supply chains, we’ll see more government intervention, strategic stockpiling, and subsidies for domestic champions. The consequences? Higher costs, slower innovation, and a long-lasting fragmented market.

The effects are widespread. From fertilizers, food production, to the semiconductor industry—disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz cutting off helium and sulfur supplies could harm chip manufacturing. The UN has also warned about a surge in global food prices. This isn’t short-term volatility; it’s a structural shift.

Now, what’s crucial for us as investors: central banks no longer have the free space to open the liquidity taps like before. From 2008 to 2021, global inflation averaged below 3%, allowing the Fed and other central banks to implement ultra-easy policies. That’s what drove Bitcoin from single digits to $126k last October.

But with higher structural inflation expectations, the game has changed. Interest rates can’t keep being lowered. Liquidity will tighten. This means yields across all asset classes—stocks, bonds, crypto—will be pressured, and volatility will become the norm.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin itself has remained relatively stable within the $65k-$73k range over the past six weeks of the war, but that stability masks growing dependence on a small group of institutional buyers. Bitcoin spot ETFs and other institutional channels are now the main buying engines, which means the crypto market is becoming more fragmented in terms of structure and participation.

Bottom line: The world is shifting into a new paradigm. High inflation, tight monetary policy, high volatility—this is the new baseline. Investors need to prepare for expectations different from the previous decade. The fragmented energy markets reflect a global economy that is restructuring itself.