April 11, 2026 Intraday Analysis

The above analysis is based on public data and statistical models and does not constitute direct investment advice.
Trading should be combined with real-time market conditions and personal risk tolerance.
· ETH Long Positions: Entry $2,195 - $2,210, Stop Loss $2,170**, Take Profit **$2,250 / $2,275
· ETH Short Positions: Entry $2,290 - $2,310, Stop Loss $2,335**, Take Profit **$2,250 / $2,210
· BTC Long Positions: Entry $71,800 - $72,200, Stop Loss $71,300**, Take Profit **$73,200 / $73,800
· BTC Short Positions: Entry $73,800 - $74,200, Stop Loss $74,600**, Take Profit **$72,800 / $72,000
Progress in US-Iran negotiations (may be interrupted at any time), and whether BTC can stabilize above $73,000 with increased volume.
If volume breaks above $73,700, short positions should be cautious; if volume shrinks and prices rebound, short strategies remain valid.
The market has undergone structural changes—BTC broke through $73,000, ETH remains above $2,240, and the previously set $2,120-$2,140 long entry zone was not touched, with prices jumping directly from oversold areas.
Now, based on the latest screenshot data, we re-evaluate.
Core conclusion: Oversold rebound has been fulfilled, short-term bullish structure established, but multi-cycle overbought resonance is forming.
Yesterday’s core logic—“Daily extreme oversold (J value 0.11) triggers a rebound”—has been perfectly realized.
Currently, 1H/4H are both turning bullish, but the KDJ and RSI of the 1H, 4H, and 1D cycles are all entering high zones, indicating increasing overbought pressure.
Plus, today, April 11, US-Iran formal negotiations commence, which could cause sharp market shocks.
Strategy should shift from yesterday’s “mainly low buy” to a “reduce long positions at high levels, test short positions at key resistances, re-enter longs on pullbacks” oscillation with a bullish bias.

I. Geopolitical and Macro: Negotiation Day arrives, two-way volatility risk sharply increases
1. US-Iran Negotiations Officially Begin (Today’s Key Variable)
· First round of talks scheduled for April 11 in Pakistan, with previous ceasefire agreements showing cracks—only 4 ships allowed through the Strait of Hormuz.
· Scenario analysis:
· If positive signals emerge (e.g., expanded passage rights, extended ceasefire) → risk appetite continues to rise, BTC may test above $74,000.
· If negotiations break down or military friction occurs → oil prices rebound, safe-haven sentiment intensifies, and crypto prices may quickly retrace gains.
2. Macro Market Calm, Focus on Negotiations
· Yesterday’s CPI data has been digested, and Fed officials’ speeches are in a quiet period.
· Short-term macro catalysts are lacking; geopolitical negotiations become the dominant variable for the day.
3. Capital Flow: OI rises but volume shrinks
· According to Coinglass screenshots: Open interest (OI) +3.63%, but 24-hour trading volume -18.18%.
· Prices are rising but volume is declining, indicating that active buying is weak, mainly driven by short covering rebounds and some new long positions.
· This “volume contraction on rising prices” structure near resistance levels is prone to profit-taking pressure.

II. Multi-cycle Technical Analysis of ETH/USDT (based on latest 1H, 4H, 1D data)
1H
Price $2,244, above MA60($2,238), bullish alignment
Price broke through mid-line towards upper band
MACD -0.22, DIF -0.30 < DEA -0.08 → No bullish crossover below zero line, still weak
K 65.6 / J 95.1 → J approaching 100, overbought warning
RSI6 66.5, not yet at 70, short-term bullish but J high warns of exhaustion

4H
Price $2,244, **above** MA60($2,206), fully bullish
Price broke through mid-line towards upper band($2,275)
MACD -0.23, DIF 12.07 < DEA 12.30 → Converging death cross, no bullish crossover yet
K 55.9 / J 37.0 → Neutral leaning high
RSI6 57.3, healthy, trend turning bullish, MACD if bullish crossover occurs will confirm acceleration

1D
Price $2,244, above MA7/MA18/MA60, fully bullish
Price broke through mid-line, near upper band
MACD 1.24, DIF 27.28 > DEA 26.04 → Bullish crossover above zero line
K 76.9 / J 100.00 → J at peak, extremely overbought
RSI6 68.7, approaching 70, daily overbought resonance, caution for pullback

ETH Multi-cycle Conclusion:
· Positive signals: 4H moving averages bullish, 1D MACD above zero line, mid-term rebound healthy.
· Risk signals: 1H J 95, 1D J 100, RSI near 70, multi-cycle overbought resonance forming, short-term chasing longs risk-reward ratio deteriorating.
· Key levels: Resistance at $2,275 (4H Bollinger upper band) and $2,315 (1D previous high); support at $2,205 (4H MA60) and $2,180 (1H dense chip zone).

BTC/USDT (based on latest 1H, 4H, 1D data)
Cycle
Moving averages, BOLL, MACD, KDJ, RSI(6/12/24)
Signal interpretation

1H
Price $72,932, **above** MA60($71,856), bullish
Price broke through mid-line, near upper band $73,708
MACD -22.9, DIF 303.1 < DEA 326.1 → Zero line death cross converging
K 48.1 / J 25.8 → Neutral leaning low (due to recent rise)
RSI6 54.9, neutral

1H MACD not yet bullish crossover, watch for volume breakout

4H
Price $72,932, **far from** MA60($69,095), strong bullish
Price broke upper band, Bollinger bands expanding
MACD 43.6, DIF 945.5 > DEA 901.9 → Zero line bullish crossover continues
K 76.0 / J 89.4 → Overbought zone
RSI6 71.2, overbought

4H bullish momentum strong but RSI overbought, needs consolidation

1D
Price $72,932, above all moving averages, strong bullish
Price broke mid-line, near upper band $73,673
MACD 662.9, DIF 655.9 > DEA -6.9 → Zero line bullish crossover
K 85.4 / J 104.4 → J divergence risk
RSI6 76.0, severely overbought

Daily overbought resonance with ETH, multi-cycle resonance conclusion:
· Strong structure: 4H and 1D MACD bullish above zero, all moving averages aligned, trend strong.
· Overbought pressure: 1D J 104, RSI 76, reaching historical high levels, further upward move requires massive volume; otherwise, risk of sharp pullback.
· Key levels: Resistance at $73,700 (1H Bollinger upper band / 1D upper band) and $74,800 (previous high); support at $72,500 (1H MA60) and $71,800 (4H MA18).

III. Auxiliary Indicators and Chip Signals
1. Long/Short Ratio
· Coinglass shows BTC long/short ratio 49.48% / 50.52%, ETH similar.
· Shorts still slightly dominant, indicating retail sentiment not fully bullish, which could fuel further rise (shorts’ stop-loss).

2. RSI Comprehensive Assessment
· ETH 1D RSI6 68.7 (near 70)
· BTC 1D RSI6 76.0 (overbought), 4H RSI6 71.2 (overbought)
· Conclusion: BTC’s overbought level is more severe than ETH, implying higher correction pressure for BTC; ETH may resist declines or catch up.

3. Volume and OI
· Volume shrinking while OI increases, a typical “divergence” signal.
· If price cannot break key resistance with volume, increased OI may turn into potential liquidation pressure.

4. Liquidation Map (Key!)
· ETH liquidation distribution: at current $2,244, small long liquidations below $2,180-$2,150 (yellow), but not dense; new short liquidation cloud appears above $2,280-$2,310 (red).
· BTC liquidation distribution: at current $72,932, thin long liquidations below $72,000-$71,500; thicker short liquidation cloud above $73,500-$74,200.
· Liquidity projection: current pattern suggests price may first spike up to hunt short stops (above $73,500 / $2,280), then likely pull back to liquidate longs.

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IV. Intraday Long/Short Levels and Strategy
Market state qualification:
· Daily bullish structure established, but multi-cycle overbought resonance + volume contraction + uncertain news → likely to see “push higher, then pull back, then rebound” N-shaped oscillation intraday.

Core strategy:
· Abandon chasing longs; wait for pullback to support levels to re-enter longs.
· Lightly short at key resistance levels to target correction.

Currency | Direction | Entry Logic | Entry Point | Stop Loss | Take Profit 1 | Take Profit 2
---|---|---|---|---|---|---
ETH | Low Long | Confirm support at 4H MA60 on pullback | $2,195 - $2,210 | $2,170 | $2,250 | $2,275
ETH | High Short | Reach short liquidation zone + daily J 100 overbought | $2,290 - $2,310 | $2,335 | $2,250 | $2,210
BTC | Low Long | Rebound support at 1H MA60 and chip support | $71,800 - $72,200 | $71,300 | $73,200 | $73,800
BTC | High Short | Daily RSI 76 + short liquidation zone resistance | $73,800 - $74,200 | $74,600 | $72,800 | $72,000

V. Risk Warnings and Critical Red Lines
1. Negotiation news shocks (today’s key risk): US-Iran negotiations may release headlines at any time, causing sharp price swings.
· Reduce positions before and after key news releases (especially during overlap of European/US sessions) to avoid double-sided losses.
2. Overbought correction risk: BTC daily J 104, RSI 76, historically such readings lead to at least one 5-8% pullback within 3 days.
· Long positions must move stop-loss to protect profits.
3. No chasing orders: Current price (ETH $2,244 / BTC $72,932) is in a “liquidity vacuum” zone, neither rising nor falling.
· Do not chase longs or shorts at current levels; wait for trigger points.
4. Technical invalidation conditions:
· If ETH 1H closes below $2,205 with a bearish candle, the 4H bullish structure weakens, and longs should exit and observe.
· If BTC 1H closes below $71,800 with a bearish candle, the current rebound may top out temporarily.