The “Regulated Pause” in the Strait of Hormuz—Ceasefire Is Easy, Resumption Is Difficult

The US-Iran ceasefire agreement has been in effect for several days, but the shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz remain quiet. On the first day of the ceasefire, only 4 ships passed through, the lowest single-day number since April. Iran has limited the daily passage to about 12 ships and warned that ships that pass without authorization will face the risk of being destroyed. Over a thousand ships are still stuck on both sides of the strait, and the global energy supply chain remains in limbo.

1. Only 4 ships passed through on the first day of the ceasefire

According to Xinhua News Agency citing The Wall Street Journal, after the US and Iran announced the ceasefire, on April 8 only 4 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz, the lowest daily number since April. Before the outbreak of war, more than 100 ships passed through the waterway per day. Iran told the mediators that it will limit the number of daily passages to about 12 ships, and warned nearby vessels that they must obtain Iran’s permission in order to pass.

A report released by maritime data analytics firm Windward says that after the ceasefire, traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains sparse and under strict control. Navigation conditions, toll arrangements, and the legal framework for transit are still unclear; the strait has not truly reopened and is currently in a kind of “regulated pause” status.

2. Iran warns: without authorization, ships will be destroyed

In the early morning of the 8th, a maritime radio recording shared by a crew member with The Wall Street Journal showed Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy sending warnings by radio to ships anchored near Hormuz: ships that pass without authorization will face the risk of being destroyed.

Iran said that ship passage must be coordinated with its armed forces and must “fully consider technical limitations.” On the 8th, Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organization published a safety navigation route map for the waters of the Strait of Hormuz, informing vessels traveling to and from the area to follow shipping safety principles and avoid mines. The organization said that from February 28 to April 8, fighting continued in the waters of the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, and various anti-ship mines may exist in the main shipping routes. Vessels should navigate according to the safety navigation route map published by Iran until further notice.

3. A thousand ships stranded, global supply chain under strain

According to MarineTraffic vessel-tracking platform data, stranded ships in the Persian Gulf include 426 oil tankers, 34 liquefied petroleum gas ships, and 19 liquefied natural gas ships; in addition, there are several hundred container ships and general cargo vessels. Windward’s report shows that about 3,200 ships remain stranded west of the Strait of Hormuz, including about 800 oil tankers and cargo ships.

Trade flows in the Gulf region have shifted noticeably. Shipping activity that previously went through the Strait of Hormuz has been redirected to ports on Oman and the UAE’s east coast, forming a new logistics diversion system. Shipping companies generally adopt alternative routes around the Cape of Good Hope; the usual route between Europe and the Gulf region has been extended from about 25 days to about 41 days, and transportation costs have increased by about 25%.

4. US and Iran say different things: Has the strait actually been “opened”?

On the morning of April 8, US Defense Secretary Hegseth said that Iran is allowing ships to pass through the strait and claimed that the US has achieved “decisive military victory” over Iran, stating that “what has been reached and declared is: the strait is open.” However, this statement diverges sharply from the actual situation—actual strait passage data, Iran’s radio warnings, and descriptions from frontline crew members all conflict with Hegseth’s claims.

In an interview on the 9th, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Hatiib Zadeh said the Strait of Hormuz is still open, but due to the war, passage still has certain technical restrictions. Israel’s continued attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon are also seen by Iran as violations of the ceasefire agreement, and on that basis Iran has paused oil tanker passage.

5. Companies are watching and waiting; negotiations decide the tone

At present, the vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz are mainly operated by players with higher risk tolerance. There is no sign of major shipping companies and oil giants resuming operations. War-risk insurance premiums remain high, which also limits the return of mainstream shipping forces. Iran is gradually establishing relevant systems to control navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, including pre-voyage approvals, vessel inspections, designated sea lanes, and possible arrangements for passage fees.

Analysis reports believe that April 8 to 10 is a preliminary inspection window, and April 11 to 14 will become the decision window for major shipping companies. They will determine corporate strategies based on how the ceasefire continues and related implementation measures. Even in the most optimistic scenario, restoring transportation of energy cargoes stranded in the Strait of Hormuz will still take several weeks, and bringing global trade recovery back to pre-crisis levels may require several months.

Summary: From “blockade” to “regulated pause,” Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz has been institutionalized. The ceasefire agreement exists on paper, but on the water, every ship still needs Iran’s permission, every leg of a voyage still faces the threat of mines, and every passage is strictly restricted. The US says “the strait is open,” while Iran says “openness is conditional.” The gap between these two positions is exactly the most thorny issue at the negotiation table in Islamabad.
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