Market Strategy Tips (April 9 — April 10, from yesterday to today)

Market Analysis
From yesterday to today, the market has been caught in a choppy pattern as the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone solidifies, cautious sentiment rises ahead of the release of the US CPI data, and expectations for a Middle East ceasefire keep shifting back and forth. Gold made a push to new highs before pulling back, consolidating with wide-range trading in the $4,700—$4,800 area. It shows a tug-of-war between profit-taking at high levels and support-buying. The crypto market is moving in sync with the same volatility: Bitcoin is repeatedly ranging between $70,000 and $72,000. Overall sentiment remains cautious, awaiting tonight’s CPI data to provide a clearer direction.
Macroeconomic News
1、The market’s core trading logic is still mainly centered on the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates high for longer, concerns about sticky inflation, and geopolitical uncertainty. The March meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve released a clear hawkish signal. Officials generally worry about the risk of an inflation rebound—especially the stagflation pressure stemming from oil prices and the Middle East situation—so they remain extremely cautious about rate cuts, and expectations for rate cuts this year continue to be pushed back. The market is broadly focused on tonight’s US March CPI data. If inflation comes in above expectations, it will further reinforce the hawkish stance and weigh on gold and crypto assets. If inflation cools, it may help ease macro pressures. The US dollar and US Treasury yields continue to trade at high levels, which exerts sustained constraints on non-yielding assets. Although the Middle East situation is currently in a ceasefire, there are still significant differences in negotiations, and risk-aversion sentiment has not fully dissipated.
2、Gold rallied then pulled back near historic highs and has entered a phase of high-level consolidation and stabilization. Yesterday, spot gold surged to above $4,850 to set a new historic high, then quickly retraced. The low dipped to around $4,700 before receiving support. It is currently consolidating and trading around the $4,750 level. The main drivers behind this pullback are profit-taking from elevated positions and funds exiting cautiously ahead of CPI. Meanwhile, below $4,700, support comes from central bank gold purchases, physical buying, and geopolitical safe-haven funds—making the battle between bulls and bears particularly clear. Overall, it still remains within a strong structure, but near-term correction pressure after being overbought is showing up. Key ranges: support at $4,700—$4,730, with strong support at $4,650—$4,680; resistance at $4,780—$4,800, with strong resistance at $4,850 in the historic high area.
3、The crypto market is also seeing high-level oscillations, with Bitcoin repeatedly ranging between $70,000—$72,000. BTC pulled back from around $72,500. After holding the key support level at $70,000, it rebounded slightly. Overall, it maintains a strong structure, but upward momentum has slowed. In terms of market liquidity, BTC ETFs continue to see net inflows, Grayscale’s selling pressure continues to narrow, long-term holders’ positions on-chain remain stable, and big whales are still accumulating below $70,000. However, due to cautious sentiment ahead of macro data, contract volatility has been converging, chasing higher prices has weakened, and in the short term the market mainly digests profit-taking through consolidation. Key ranges: support at $70,000—$70,500, with strong support at $68,500—$69,000; resistance at $72,000—$72,500, with strong resistance above $73,000.
Special Reminder
Gold is currently repairing and consolidating at high levels after reaching a historic high; this is not a trend reversal. However, ahead of CPI, the risk of volatility has increased significantly—do not blindly chase highs or bottom-fish against the trend. Stick to a light position, observe the range, operate within the range, set strict stop-losses, and wait for the data to land before adjusting your plan in line with the outcome.
Even though the crypto market has held key supports, macro uncertainty is still present. The short-term upward pace has slowed—do not chase gains with heavy positions, and strictly control overall exposure. $70,000 is an important line of defense in the short term; if it breaks, be alert to further pullbacks. If it holds above $72,000, consider adding to positions. Before the data is released, focus on observation and risk control.