Middle East Situation Report | April 9

On the very first day that the US-Iran ceasefire agreement took effect, the situation quickly fell into an awkward predicament of “each side giving its own account.” Israel launched large-scale airstrikes on Lebanon, causing thousands of deaths and injuries; in response, Iran cited shutting the Strait of Hormuz; an unexpected turn emerged in the Gaza ceasefire. The Middle East is experiencing a “fragile peace.”

I. Ceasefire agreement: “the same piece of paper,” yet everyone speaks differently

As of around 9:00 a.m. Beijing time on April 9, the two-week interim ceasefire announced by the US and Iran had already been in effect for 24 hours. However, after the ceasefire announcement, the first thing that appeared was not a unified statement of implementation details, but different interpretations by the parties of what the ceasefire means.

The US version: When President Trump gave an interview to the US Public Broadcasting Service (PBS) on the 8th, he clearly stated that Lebanon was not included in the US-Iran two-week ceasefire, and that Israel’s strikes on Lebanon were “another separate conflict,” adding, “this issue will be resolved later.” At a press conference, White House Press Secretary Leavitt announced that the US and Iran would hold the first round of talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, at 11:00 a.m. local time on the morning of the 11th. The US negotiating team would be led by Vice President Vance, and members would also include Middle East envoy Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Kushner, among others. Leavitt also specifically pointed out that the premise for the negotiations is that the Strait of Hormuz remains safe and open, with no restrictions or delays.

The Iranian version: The 10 ceasefire articles released by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council contain entirely different content—requiring the US to guarantee non-interference with Iran, to end all wars on every front including those involving Lebanon, to withdraw US forces from all bases in the region, to accept Iran’s uranium enrichment activities, and to lift all sanctions. On the 8th, Ali Karribaf, the Speaker of Iran’s Islamic Consultative Assembly, issued a statement saying that before the negotiations even began, three of the 10 terms proposed by the Iranian side had already been violated: first, reaching a ceasefire in Lebanon (Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shabaz had previously announced a ceasefire that included Lebanon); second, prohibiting interference with Iran’s airspace (the Iranian Revolutionary Guard intercepted and shot down a drone over Fars Province that day); and third, accepting Iran’s uranium enrichment activities. Karribaf emphasized that “in this situation, neither a bilateral ceasefire nor negotiations are reasonable.”

Regarding the basis for negotiations, both sides were equally adamant. The US said that Iran’s initial “10-point plan” had been directly rejected, and that Iran submitted a “modified and completely different simplified plan,” aligning it with the “15-point plan” proposed by the US. Iran, for its part, believed that Trump had already clearly stated that Iran’s “ten-point plan” was a “feasible basis for conducting negotiations.” On the 8th, Trump posted on social media saying that the “10 articles” on Iran ceasefire negotiations were “a completely fabricated scam.”

Israel’s version: On the evening of the 8th, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu delivered a video address, emphasizing that the ceasefire “is not the end of the war,” but only one stage in the process of Israel achieving all its predetermined goals. He added that Israel is “ready to return to the battlefield at any time,” and that “a finger is always on the trigger.”

II. Lebanon: On the first day of the ceasefire, it suffered “the largest-scale” airstrikes

Just hours after Trump announced the ceasefire, on the 8th, the Israel Defense Forces launched a large-scale airstrike campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon codenamed “Eternal Darkness”—with 50 fighter jets dropping about 160 bombs on 100 targets within 10 minutes. Lebanon’s civil defense department reported that after the airstrikes, at least 254 people were killed and 1,165 were injured, making it the deadliest day in terms of single-day casualties for Lebanon since the fighting between Lebanon and Israel reignited in early March.

The airstrike coverage extended across the entire country of Lebanon. On the afternoon of the 8th, Beirut was hit by at least 5 airstrikes, with thick smoke filling the area. The Israeli military also destroyed the last bridge connecting southern Lebanon with other parts of the country. Lebanon’s Prime Minister Nawaf Salam announced April 9 as a national day of mourning to commemorate innocent civilians killed in the airstrikes.

Iran reacted strongly. In a statement, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said that within hours of the ceasefire agreement, Israel “brutally killed innocents, children and women,” carried out a “barbaric massacre” in Beirut, and warned that “if attacks against Lebanon do not stop immediately, the ‘aggressors’ in this region will be met with a response that they will regret.” The commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force, Mousavi, also said that they were “preparing to deliver a heavy blow in retaliation for the aggressors’ barbaric crimes.” Iran also stated clearly on the 8th that talks with the US in Pakistan would occur only if a ceasefire is achieved in Lebanon. An insider said that if Israel continues to violate the ceasefire agreement and continues attacking Lebanon, Iran will consider withdrawing from the agreement.

On the 9th, Hezbollah in Lebanon also took action in response by firing rockets into northern Israel, describing the strike as a response to Israel’s violation of the ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, the IDF announced that it had confirmed Hezbollah Deputy Chairman Naim Qasem had been killed. Qasem was effectively the organization’s second-in-command. After the assassination of the previous leader Nasrallah, he had long been responsible for the organization’s day-to-day command. His death was viewed as one of Hezbollah’s most severe senior losses since the conflict broke out.

UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Turk said that such “massacres” following the US-Iran interim ceasefire are “unbelievable.”

III. Strait of Hormuz: Open for a few hours, then closed again

The status of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz became the most direct “barometer” of the ceasefire agreement, and the speed of its changes was dizzying.

Brief reopening: After the US and Iran announced the ceasefire, traffic through the strait temporarily resumed. According to the maritime website of the international freight information platform MarineTraffic, a Greek bulk carrier and a vessel flying the Liberian flag were among the first ships to pass through the strait after the ceasefire. Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organization released a safety navigation chart for the Strait of Hormuz on the 8th, telling vessels to follow maritime safety principles and avoid mines.

Closed again: However, after Israel launched large-scale airstrikes on Lebanon, Iran’s stance changed rapidly. According to Iran’s Fars News Agency on the 8th, Iran halted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Data from maritime traffic tracking systems showed that tankers that had originally been heading for the strait suddenly completed a 180-degree turn near the coast of Oman and returned deep into the Persian Gulf. Iran’s state television reported on the 8th that the strait had been completely closed, and some tankers were forced to turn back.

Current situation: On the 9th, the naval branch of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement saying that due to recent wartime developments, the main navigation areas of the Strait of Hormuz may contain anti-ship mines. Vessels planning to pass through the strait should coordinate with the IRGC Navy and transit via the alternative routes set by it. According to maritime traffic tracking systems, currently no ships are passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development shows that since the blockade began, the strait’s vessel traffic volume has plummeted by 95%, dropping from an average of 130 ships per day to only 6 in March. There are still more than 1,000 cargo vessels of various types stranded on both sides of the strait.

The shipping industry is generally keeping watch. Denmark’s Maersk said that the two-week ceasefire “may bring some transit opportunities,” but it cannot currently provide “full maritime certainty.” Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd said that even if the ceasefire holds, it would still take at least 6 to 8 weeks for the entire shipping network to return to normal. Chen Yang, editor-in-chief of Sinotrans Maritime, said that many tasks are required for ships to pass, and there are currently no publicly available transit rules; even if ships pass, it is “case-by-case” or covertly taking risks to transit.

IV. Yemen’s Houthis: The Strait of Mandeb becomes another “trump card”

As the fighting in Lebanon escalated, Iran’s other key ally—the Yemen Houthi movement—also issued clear threats. The Houthis announced that their military actions are not related to the US-Iran ceasefire agreement. As long as Israel continues military actions against Hezbollah in Lebanon, they will continue launching attacks. The Houthis emphasized that they are part of a coordinated “axis of resistance,” and that their actions will continue until “the invasions of all resistance fronts stop.”

More worryingly, the Houthis again threatened to block the Strait of Mandeb. This narrow waterway connecting the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden is a critical choke point for global energy and trade. Previously, Velayati, foreign affairs adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, warned the US that if there is “another mistake,” the resistance front will respond by blocking the Strait of Mandeb. The Houthis also claimed that if the Lebanon conflict “barbarically escalates,” or if Gulf states are seen assisting Israel or US military actions, they will again close the Strait of Mandeb.

Militarily, the Houthis have recently launched multiple ballistic missiles and drones toward southern Israel, including the Red Sea resort city of Eilat. The IDF confirmed intercepting missiles and drones coming from Yemen, but Israel’s intelligence assessments also indicate that the Houthis’ supply lines have been initially cut, and their core combat capability is gradually being weakened.

V. Gaza: An unexpected turn of events in the ceasefire

While fighting flared up on other fronts, Gaza saw an unexpected signal of peace. In a report by CCTV News in the early morning of the 9th local time, the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) has agreed to a Gaza ceasefire agreement. According to information from Hamas sources cited by media including Cairo News Channel, Israel and Hamas will sign the Gaza ceasefire agreement in Egypt on the 9th. Also, according to the Palestinian “Holy City” newspaper, Hamas and Palestinian factions agreed on a Gaza ceasefire plan; the formal agreement will be signed in Egypt on the 9th, including the immediate opening of five crossing points.

However, Israel has not yet made an official response. Notably, the IDF announced on the same day that it killed an important Hamas member, Muhammad Shah. The Israeli military said Shah had long used his role as a reporter for Al Jazeera as a cover, but in reality he was a core member of Hamas’s intelligence and special operations departments.

VI. US moves and the sanctions game

On the 8th, US President Trump posted on social media that all US ships, aircraft, and military personnel “will continue to be stationed inside Iran and in the surrounding areas until the agreement reached is fully complied with,” warning that “if for any reason compliance cannot be achieved, the fighting will flare up again, and its scale will be much larger than anything anyone has ever seen.”

Meanwhile, the US continues to wield its sanctions stick. Trump announced that any country that provides military weapons to Iran will immediately face a 50% tariff on all goods it sells to the US, effective immediately with no exclusions or exemptions.

On the issue of lifting sanctions, US Vice President Vance said on the 8th that Iran giving up its pursuit of nuclear weapons could cause the US to weaken sanctions. “If Iran does not assume hard obligations such as stopping similar nuclear weapons development, then this would not happen.” Data from the International Atomic Energy Agency shows that Iran currently holds about 440 kg of uranium enriched to 60%, which has not yet reached weapons-grade.

VII. Follow-up observations

The first round of talks between the US and Iran is scheduled to be held behind closed doors in Islamabad, Pakistan on the morning of April 11 local time. The premise for the negotiations is that the Strait of Hormuz remains safe and open, but currently the strait is still completely closed. More critically, Iran insists on requiring a ceasefire in Lebanon as a precondition for negotiations, while the US and Israel have both made it clear that the ceasefire does not include Lebanon—this fundamental disagreement was already laid on the table before negotiations even began. On the 8th, Vance even directly threatened Iran, saying, “If you’re willing to let the negotiations fail, then so be it.”

Summary: Just 24 hours after the ceasefire agreement took effect, complicated divisions have already appeared across every front in the Middle East. The Israel-Lebanon conflict escalated sharply; the Strait of Hormuz was shut again; the Houthis threatened a new front; but Gaza saw a glimmer of ceasefire. The fundamental disagreements between the US and Iran over the “ceasefire scope” and the “basis for negotiations” have not been resolved. Whether the Islamabad talks can take place as scheduled and achieve substantive progress will directly determine whether this “fragile truce” can continue. And the fate of the Middle East depends, to a large extent, on the game among all parties at the negotiating table over the next 48 hours.
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