Crude oil plunges 12%: War pauses, but oil prices "surrender" first? The truth behind it is quite counterintuitive

WTI drops 11.91 in a day, and many people's first reaction is: Is the war ending?
Stay calm, this move is more like "expectation fulfillment + emotional sell-off."
Previously, oil prices rose mainly for one reason: fear of supply disruption.
Now, a ceasefire = short-term supply security → Bulls start to flee.
But here’s the key point:
Has the supply risk really disappeared? No.
Although the Strait of Hormuz "may resume navigation," pay attention to the keyword: may.
It’s like your boss says, "No layoffs next month," do you believe it completely?
So, what’s the outlook for crude oil next?
👉 Short-term: Pullback + consolidation (emotional release)
👉 Mid-term: Still room for upside (geopolitical risks not eliminated)
👉 Trading strategy: Don’t chase short positions, wait for low levels to add long positions
Remember one thing:
The oil price isn’t falling because of reality, but due to "panic premium."
Do you think oil prices will surge again? See you in the comments #原油小幅上涨