I just watched a video where some well-known analysts ( I won't name ) compared different points in Bitcoin's history with recent Bitcoin market conditions.

The tools he used, I believe, are illusionary, such as low-high points, RSI, and some other indicators that actually don't work.
He also relies on his pattern recognition ability, which I find highly subjective.
Can we compare previous cycle points using mathematical and scientific methods? Yes, here is the approach.
This differs slightly from previous charts because it uses a 3-month moving average (MA) compared to a 1-year period, but the results are similar.
Feature (3-month MA):
All 92 points are below the power law (undervaluation)
n range: [-27.81, 1.84] — wide distribution of local growth rates
dn/dt range: [0.032, 0.052] — all positive, trending toward stability/bottom
Average: n = -5.07 ± 7.14, dn/dt = 0.042 ± 0.006
What does this tell us:
These yellow squares represent Bitcoin's historical “accumulation zones”:
Declining but stabilizing — negative n (price drops on a 3-month scale), but dn/dt is positive (slowing down the rate of decline)
Classic bottom pattern — this dynamic feature repeatedly appears at cycle lows and consolidation phases
Undervaluation background — all 92 points occur when Bitcoin's trading price is below its power law trend line
Historical periods represented:
Early Bitcoin (2011-2013):
December 2011: $2.85-3.25
June 2012: $6.29-6.67
January 2013: $15.50
2015 bear market bottom:
January to April 2015: $227-294 (multiple clusters)
Classic accumulation zone
Various consolidation phases:
Spread across 2016-2020
Post-2022 bear market rebound
Recent 2026
Current state background:
Current n = -18.08, dn/dt = 0.040, the system is in a bear market quadrant, but the dynamics are trending toward stability (positive dn/dt).
The 92 historical precedents show this is a recurring pattern in Bitcoin's lifecycle — undervaluation periods, short-term slowdown in declines, often before rebounds.
This is textbook dynamic similarity — regardless of the absolute price level, periods where Bitcoin exhibits similar behavior patterns can be identified! #Gate广场四月发帖挑战