4.8 Why Did Gold Surge to 4800? Can the Violent Rally Continue?

News Highlights:

On April 8, international gold (London Gold Spot) exhibited extreme volatility with "gap up opening, strong breakout, and high-level oscillation." The Asian session opened with a gap up after news of the US and Iran reaching a three-party temporary ceasefire agreement for two weeks. The gold price immediately gapped higher, quickly breaking through the key psychological level of 4800 USD, with the highest intraday spike reaching 4856 USD/oz, an increase of over 3% at one point. Subsequently, market sentiment gradually cooled, with bulls taking profits and gold prices slightly retreating from the high, currently quoted around 4798 USD/oz, with the daily gain narrowing to about 1.5%. The ceasefire is only a temporary, short-term arrangement; the outcome of subsequent negotiations remains unknown. Geopolitical risks have not been fully eliminated, providing ongoing safe-haven support for gold.

Four-Hour Chart Analysis:
The MA5/MA10/MA20 moving averages are diverging steeply upward, with prices strongly rallying along the MA5, forming a typical acceleration upward pattern. The MACD remains bullish above the zero line, but the red histogram is slightly shrinking, indicating that upward momentum has slightly weakened compared to earlier. The RSI is operating between 60-70, still in a strong zone and not yet overbought. The Bollinger Bands, after extreme expansion, are gradually contracting; the upper band has shifted from steep upward to flat, the middle band is rising rapidly, and the lower band is also lifting, showing a bullish overbought convergence pattern. Regarding candlestick structure, after a series of large bullish candles, the current pattern has shifted to small doji and small bullish/bearish oscillations, with prices pulling back from the upper Bollinger Band, forming a clear resistance at high levels, reflecting rapid exhaustion of bullish momentum, with profit-taking pressure concentrated at the highs. Short-term bearish forces are beginning to dominate.

One-Hour Chart Analysis:
MACD has formed a death cross above the zero line, with the green histogram slightly increasing, indicating a clear short-term correction pressure. If RSI falls back to the 60-65 range and stabilizes, it will complete a technical adjustment, setting the stage for a new rally. On moving averages, MA5/MA10 are turning downward in the short term, creating short-term resistance, but the MA20 medium-term moving average remains upward, maintaining the bullish trend. Key support levels are around 4720-4730 (MA20 support zone), while resistance is focused on the 4850-4880 area. The current market is in a overbought, high-level stagnation phase after a main rally, with technical corrections dominating in the short term. The overall trend remains bullish, and after adjustment, there is still potential for a secondary surge.

Gold Trading Strategy:
- Short on rebounds around 4830-4840 with partial positions, stop loss at 4860, target 4780-4760.
- Long on dips around 4750-4740 with partial positions, stop loss at 4730, target 4780-4800.

Disclaimer: The above content is for personal ideas and opinions sharing only and does not constitute trading advice.