#Gate广场四月发帖挑战

Bitcoin once again challenges $70k. Is this a sign of a market rebound or a good opportunity to short?

On April 6th, the Bitcoin market experienced a long-awaited strong rally. By 2:00 PM, the price reached a high of $69,491.65, up over 3.3% intraday, ultimately stabilizing around $68,945.33. This surge not only ended Bitcoin’s consecutive days of sideways consolidation but also boosted overall market sentiment for cryptocurrencies. Mainstream coins like Ethereum also followed the rally, with Ethereum breaking through $2,091, up 1.2% intraday, while second-tier coins like SOL and XRP gained over 1%.

Accompanying the market surge was a spike in liquidation data. According to CoinGlass, over the past 24 hours, more than 80k traders worldwide were liquidated, with total liquidations reaching $252 million.

Why did the market suddenly reverse?

(1) Geopolitical tensions ease, signaling positive developments

Recently, signs of easing in the US-Iran tensions have emerged, serving as the direct catalyst for Bitcoin’s rally. U.S. President Trump revealed that the U.S. is engaged in “in-depth negotiations” with Iran, and an agreement could be reached before the deadline on the 7th. Previously, Iran’s ongoing military counterattacks caused global markets to panic, and Bitcoin, as a risk asset, was also affected, with prices under pressure. However, progress in negotiations has significantly alleviated risk aversion sentiment, leading funds to flow back into risk assets, with Bitcoin benefiting first.

(2) Institutional investment continues to lay the foundation for an upward trend

From a capital perspective, sustained institutional investment has provided solid support for Bitcoin’s price. In Q1 2026, corporations accumulated 69k BTC, while retail investors sold 62k BTC during the same period, showing a clear “institutions buy, retail sell” pattern. This shift in capital structure indicates institutional investors’ recognition of Bitcoin’s long-term value and provides ample liquidity for the market. Additionally, U.S. financial giant Charles Schwab confirmed plans to launch direct spot trading of Bitcoin and Ethereum in the first half of 2026, further boosting market confidence and attracting more traditional funds to the crypto space.

Should we continue to go long or open shorts at current levels?

(1) The bear market short-selling logic remains unchanged

Bitcoin is still in a bear market. The current weekly wave 5 decline structure has not yet completed, so any recent rebound should be viewed as a correction rather than a reversal. In a bear market, the most prudent strategy is to short on rallies. The current price around $69,000 is a safe short entry point that the “Little Wealth God” has frequently mentioned before. This level also acts as a weekly resistance for Bitcoin, making it a good place to open a short position.

(2) Geopolitical risks and high interest rates have not changed

In the short term, the market still faces many uncertainties. First, the US-Iran situation remains unpredictable. If negotiations break down, Iran’s military actions could escalate again, reigniting risk aversion and potentially pressuring Bitcoin prices. Arthur Hayes, a senior industry expert, warned that if the US-Iran conflict persists, Bitcoin could short-term fall below $60k.

Second, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction will also significantly impact the market. Currently, the Fed has not been forced to expand liquidity, but if monetary tightening occurs, market liquidity will be affected, and Bitcoin, as a high-risk asset, may be the first to suffer. Additionally, regulatory uncertainties in the crypto industry persist, and changes in government attitudes toward cryptocurrencies could trigger market volatility.

Summary: Therefore, today’s early rally is just a short-term rebound driven by geopolitical tensions easing, and there’s no need to panic excessively. In a broader downtrend, rebounds can actually be excellent shorting opportunities. Opening a short at around $69,000 with a stop-loss above $70,000 is a good strategy. Alright! Wishing everyone daily prosperity!