#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Where have all the BTC miners gone?

Why is BTC now difficult to become digital gold?
When the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is firmly stuck at 8 (extreme fear), struggling below the fear line for 59 consecutive days—the longest despair cycle since the 2022 FTX collapse; when each mined BTC results in a net loss of $19k—the former printing machine has become a money-consuming beast; when once-dominant mining giants are collectively selling BTC and wildly betting on AI computing power—are you still dreaming of the next bull run for BTC?
From a peak of $126k to around $67k, BTC is experiencing a meat grinder-style slaughter. Miners surrender in losses, hash rate shrinks as they retreat, Wall Street is quietly positioning in the shadows, and ordinary players are crying out amid high leverage liquidations and deep entrapments. The $60k level in April is not unbreakable—an all-out plunge that could shatter all faith is brewing. This is not just cyclical pain but a thorough restructuring of the underlying logic of the crypto world: mining becomes unprofitable, hash power shifts away from BTC to AI, and Wall Street repeatedly harvests between greed and fear—your BTC, is it digital gold or just a piece of worthless paper that can be invalidated at any moment?

Part 1: The “Great Escape” of Miners—From BTC Gold Diggers to New Lords of AI Computing Power
Once, BTC miners were the most hardcore force in the crypto world, wielding massive ASIC rigs, occupying cheap electricity, monopolizing new coin issuance through hash power, and making huge profits. But today, in 2026, this group of “gold diggers” is staging the most brutal collective escape in history, with only one goal—AI computing power.

1. Deadly Losses: Each BTC mined results in a $19k loss
According to CoinShares’ Q1 2026 mining report, the weighted average cash cost per BTC for listed miners has soared to $79,995, while current BTC spot prices hover between $67k and $70k. For each BTC produced, miners lose about $19k—an industry record for extreme cost-price inversion.
Root causes of high costs: After the 2024 BTC halving, miner revenues are cut in half; combined with rising global energy prices, skyrocketing costs of high-performance mining hardware upgrades, and increased operational expenses, the total mining cost has exceeded $87k.
Full “Underwater Operation”: About 15%-20% of global mining rigs are on the brink of shutdown, with small and medium miners going bankrupt en masse. Leading mining companies can only rely on selling reserves of BTC and taking on debt to keep operating. CryptoQuant directly labels this stage as the “Miner Surrender Phase”—the most brutal industry cleanup since the domestic shutdown of mining farms in 2021.

2. Strategic Defection: $70 billion AI orders, miners fully “switch tracks”
Faced with the deadlock in mining, top North American miners have made a decisive choice: abandon BTC and fully transition into AI computing service providers. This isn’t a trial but a complete “sellout”:
Massive orders: By March 2026, listed miners have signed over $70 billion in AI/HPC (High-Performance Computing) contracts. Giants like Core Scientific, Riot Platforms, Iris Energy are rebuilding their Texas and New York farms into AI data centers.
Selling BTC “to fund the transition”: To raise funds for the shift, miners are collectively liquidating. MARA authorized the sale of all 53,822 BTC reserves (about $4 billion); Core Scientific liquidated 1,900 BTC for $175 million; BitDeer sold all its own BTC holdings. The industry has sold over 150k BTC in total, creating persistent selling pressure.
Complete identity transformation: Industry forecasts that by the end of 2026, 70% of revenue for some top miners will come from AI services. The once “BTC miners” have fully transformed into AI infrastructure operators—they sell electricity, rent out computing power, and host GPU servers, earning stable, low-risk income, and no longer engage in loss-making mining.

3. Hash rate collapse: The “lifeline” of the BTC network is breaking
The collective withdrawal of miners has caused BTC’s total network hash rate to plummet for the first time in six years, falling from a peak of 1160 EH/s to 920 EH/s. On March 21, BTC mining difficulty was forced to drop sharply by **7.76%**, the second-largest reduction this year, but it still couldn’t reverse the losses. Hash rate is the backbone of BTC network security. Its continuous decline means reduced resistance to 51% attacks, sharply weakening network security. As the “guardians” of BTC turn to AI, this once unbreakable decentralized network reveals a fatal vulnerability.

Part 2: The April Critical Point—$60k, Is a Break inevitable?
BTC has been oscillating in the $67k–$70k range for over a month. It seems supported, but undercurrents are brewing. The $60k level in April faces multiple deadly pressures, and a breakdown is highly probable.

1. Technical Analysis: Bear Flag Forming, Downtrend Fully Opened
From a technical perspective, since the high point, BTC has formed a classic bear flag pattern on the 3-day chart, a strong bearish signal:
Core support lost: $67k is the strongest support in 2026. It has been broken multiple times but quickly recovered. However, its support strength is weakening. If BTC closes below this level for three consecutive trading days, a large-scale stop-loss cascade will be triggered.
Downside space: If it falls below $67,000, the first support is at $61,500 (the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level), followed by the psychological level of $60k. If the $60k level is effectively broken, the target could drop to $57,000 or even $52,600 (the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement).
Funding deterioration: On April 1, BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of $174 million in a single day, ending the net inflow trend in March. Institutional risk-averse sentiment is rising, retail panic selling is increasing, and market liquidity is continuously drying up.

2. Macro Environment: High interest rates lock in the bull market, black swans could strike at any time!
The core culprit behind BTC’s sharp decline is the Fed’s persistent hawkish stance:
High interest rates maintained: The federal funds rate stays between 3.5%-3.75%, with multiple signals from the Fed delaying rate cuts until 2027. Holding US bonds yields a risk-free return of 5%, making BTC’s opportunity cost high, and capital continues to flow back to traditional finance.
FOMC’s April “curse”: Historical data shows that in 8 out of 9 past FOMC meetings, BTC declined afterward. The meeting on April 28-29, if the Fed continues to keep rates high or signals hawkishness, could trigger a new round of sharp declines.
Japan’s rate hike impact: The Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates to 1% in April, accelerating yen carry trades unwinding, forcing institutions to sell risk assets including BTC to repay loans, likely causing a short-term drop of 4%-5%, directly testing the $60k support.

3. Fundamentals: Scarcity no longer exists, miner selling pressure normalizes
By March 2026, the 20 millionth BTC has been mined, leaving only 1 million BTC to be mined—seemingly increasing scarcity, but the supply side has fundamentally changed:
Miners forced to sell: To pay electricity bills, service AI transition debts, and maintain operations, miners must continue selling newly mined BTC and reserves, creating rigid selling pressure that offsets the deflationary effect of halving.
Institutional confidence shaken: Long-term holders like MicroStrategy are experiencing over 40% paper losses, and some institutions are beginning to question BTC’s “digital gold” status, increasing their willingness to reduce holdings. JPMorgan even proposed removing companies with over 50% crypto exposure from MSCI indices, further undermining institutional confidence.

Part 3: Wall Street’s Hidden Agenda—Is it Suppression or Bottom-Fishing?
Amid market panic, collective miner withdrawals, and retail bloodshed, Wall Street’s “smart money” has never been absent. Their moves will directly determine BTC’s fate in April.

1. Short-term: Using bearish pressure to induce panic and harvest
Wall Street’s current core strategy is “leveraging negative news to suppress and force panic selling”:
Releasing bearish reports: Several investment banks have issued reports bearish on BTC’s short-term prospects, amplifying market panic. JPMorgan’s previous report triggered a sell-off, essentially coordinated with institutions accumulating at lows.
ETF “fake outflows”: The net outflow of ETFs in early April appears as “rebalancing” by institutions—small sales to create panic, forcing retail investors to sell at lows, then quietly accumulating at the bottom.
Exploiting miner selling pressure: Wall Street knows miners have a rigid need to sell at losses, so they deliberately suppress prices to force miners to dump cheaply, collecting cheap chips in the $60k–$67,000 range.

2. Medium to Long-term: Confidently bottom-fishing, preparing for the next cycle
Contrary to short-term suppression, Wall Street’s long-term bullish logic on BTC remains unchanged:
Long-term ETF inflows: In March, BTC ETF saw a net inflow of $1.48 billion, a 2026 high. Giants like BlackRock and Fidelity continue to increase holdings, with pension funds and sovereign wealth funds just beginning to allocate.
Institutional consensus strengthening: Bernstein explicitly states BTC is approaching a cyclical bottom, maintaining a target of $150k by late 2026. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and others are quietly positioning for a liquidity inflection point.
Cycle pattern intact: The four-year halving cycle remains valid. The next halving in 2028 is imminent, further tightening supply. Wall Street is using the current bear market to complete its final accumulation.
Wall Street’s true intent: Short-term suppression via macro negatives, miner capitulation, and market panic below $60k to create extreme fear; long-term accumulation at the bottom, waiting for Fed rate cuts and halving to trigger a rally—an outright “cutting the leeks” scheme.

Part 4: Survival or Destruction—The Breakthrough Paths for Miners and Ordinary Players

1. Miners: Three paths—only “the strong survive”
Miners have only three options in this life-and-death situation:
Full AI transformation: Leading miners leverage their advantages in electricity, land, and infrastructure to transition into AI data centers. This is the most stable route but requires huge capital, technology, and compliance.
Hold on and endure: Shut down inefficient rigs, keep only the latest, most energy-efficient models (like Bitmain’s S23 series); seek ultra-low-cost electricity (hydropower, waste power); cut all operational costs, wait for prices to recover or difficulty to further drop.
Bankruptcy and exit: Small and medium miners with no funds or low-cost power can only shut down, sell equipment, and accept losses—an inevitable fate.
Industry endgame: BTC mining will become highly oligopolistic, with only a few giants with low-cost power, strong capital, and AI transition ability surviving. Mining will shift from “全民狂欢” (public frenzy) to “big players’ game.”

2. Ordinary players: Abandon illusions, do three things
For ordinary players, April is a life-or-death test. Blindly bottom-fishing or holding on blindly will only lead to disaster:
Strict position control, no leverage: Market volatility is intense, with daily drops of 3%-6% normal. Close all high-leverage contracts immediately, keep less than 30% spot holdings, and hold 70% cash for now. Watch key levels: if broken, cut losses. $67,000 is a short-term lifeline; if it falls below and cannot recover quickly, reduce positions; $60k is the death line—if it’s broken (three consecutive days below), liquidate and wait for the $50k–$55k range to re-enter.
Long-term faith, dollar-cost averaging: If you believe in BTC’s long-term value, abandon swing trading, start DCA. Below $60k, buy in monthly with spare funds, ignore short-term fluctuations, and wait for the 2028 halving bull market.

Conclusion: Panic leads to new life; after winter, comes the bull market
The extreme fear of 8 points on the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, miners’ despair with $19k loss per coin, Wall Street’s covert manipulations, and the fragile $60,000 support—April 2026, BTC stands at its darkest hour.
But history repeatedly proves: the most panic-stricken markets often signal the bottom is near. The collective exit of miners is a necessary industry culling; Wall Street’s suppression aims for a better rally; breaking below $60,000 may be the last dip of the month. For players, don’t sell at the bottom in panic, nor chase at the top in greed. Recognize the cycle, respect the risks, and hold your ground. After enduring this bloody April, once AI transition completes, miners exit, and the Fed cuts rates, the next bull market for BTC will arrive as scheduled. Every current panic is future market capital; every steadfast hold is a badge of surviving the winter. Are you ready?