April 6, 2026 Spot Gold Analysis and Outlook

Last week, gold prices initially rose then plummeted. Early in the week, prices surged to 4747 but faced resistance. On Thursday, Trump’s bearish comments caused a sharp drop, with the lowest near 4553. On Friday, non-farm payroll data was significantly bearish (adding 178k jobs, far exceeding expectations). Due to the holiday, trading was halted, and the bearish impact was mainly released on Monday, resulting in a high probability of gap-down opening and a downward trend overall.

The news was driven by the strong non-farm data, causing the Fed’s June rate cut probability to plummet to 2%. The US dollar and Treasury yields surged, pushing up the cost of holding gold, leading to short-term bearish pressure. Middle East geopolitical tensions provide some support, but they are unlikely to offset the data-driven bearish pressure.

Technically, the daily chart shows consecutive bearish candles breaking key support levels at 4700 and 4650, favoring the bears. Short-term oversold conditions suggest a rebound is needed. Strong support is seen at 4600-4550, with resistance at 4700-4750.

For Monday, April 6, the outlook is likely to be a gap-down open with a downward trend, initially testing support at 4600. Holding this level could lead to stabilization and a rebound; breaking below could see prices decline to 4550-4500. In the latter half of the week, focus on CPI data: if the data is strong, the market may remain weak; if weak, a rebound above 4700 could occur. Overall, expect a first decline followed by a rally.

Trading suggestions: go long on dips to 4560-4520 with a stop-loss at 4500, targeting 4680-4700; go short on rebounds to 4730-4750 with a stop-loss at 4760, targeting 4630-4600-4550. Strict stop-losses and quick entries/exits are recommended.

These are personal suggestions only and for reference. They do not constitute investment advice. Please follow the layout of Cheng Jingsheng and Shipan for specific strategies!#XAU $XAU