#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 This bear market cycle, where is the bottom of Bitcoin?? Let's do some calculations. (No investment advice provided)

Almost every crypto enthusiast has fantasized about "If I buy here and sell there, I’d be rich," eager to maximize gains, afraid of missing profit opportunities and catching the bottom.

(It's much clearer to look at the past than to predict the future) Throughout Bitcoin's history, there have been four complete major bear markets, each closely tied to the four-year halving cycle, showing a pattern of decreasing declines, stable cycle durations, and gradually rising bottoms.
1. First Bear Market (June 2011 - January 2012)
• Peak: $31.9 (June 2011)
• Bottom: $2.0 (November 2011)
• Decline: 94%
• Duration: about 7 months
• Main causes: Early exchanges (Mt.Gox) hacked, market fragile and unregulated.
2. Second Bear Market (November 2013 - January 2015)
• Peak: $1,163 (November 2013)
• Bottom: $151 (January 2015)
• Decline: 87%
• Duration: about 410 days (1 year and 1 month)
• Main causes: Mt.Gox bankruptcy, tightening Chinese regulations, prolonged bottoming process.
3. Third Bear Market (December 2017 - December 2018)
• Peak: $19,785 (December 17, 2017)
• Bottom: $3,125 (December 15, 2018)
• Decline: 84%
• Duration: 363 days (~1 year)
• Main causes: ICO bubble burst, global regulatory tightening, exchange scandals.
4. Fourth Bear Market (November 2021 - November 2022)
• Peak: $69,044 (November 10, 2021)
• Bottom: $15,476 (November 21, 2022)
• Decline: 77%
• Duration: 376 days (~1 year)
• Main causes: Aggressive Fed rate hikes, LUNA/UST collapse, FTX bankruptcy.
Summary of historical patterns:
Cycle duration: Bear markets from peak to bottom average about 383 days (roughly 1 year+)
Decline trend: 94% → 87% → 84% → 77%, with decreasing bottom declines
Bottom rising: from $2 → $151 → $3,125 → $15,476
Trigger factors: regulations, hacks, institutional collapses, macro tightening (rate hikes)
Once these patterns are clear, making judgments becomes easier.
Based on the bear cycle, we could consider bottoming out between October and November this year, regardless of the price.
With the decline narrowing each cycle, my personal estimate is that this decline should be at least 10 percentage points deeper than the last, and more conservatively 12 points, especially since in recent years, even Uncle Trump has been trading crypto, and even casual observers know about Bitcoin. A 65% decline could be the bottom.
126,200 * 65% decline = 44,170. The approximate bottom is around 44,170, but considering human sensitivity to numbers and habits, 45,000 is a strong support level and unlikely to be broken.

Attention, attention, attention!
All the above calculations are based on the lowest price in the bear market, meaning the "pin" price. So, we should place buy orders in advance to catch the bottom, around 45,700 or 46,300. (Don’t ask why these prices—just personal experience.)

Alright, now that we know how to catch the bottom, let’s talk about how to sell.
In 2017, the bull market peak was nearly $20,000; in 2021, it was $69,000—more than tripled. Last year’s peak was $126,000, which is nearly double the 2021 high, with the gains narrowing each cycle. Using this as a reference, if the next bull run’s increase is 50%, the target would be $126,000 + $63,000 = $189,000. Conservative estimates might be 40% or 30% gains, depending on your profit expectations. Anyway, the next bull market will definitely break 100,000 RMB!
Crypto markets create miracles every day! Control your desire to make quick profits, don’t trade impulsively—stay steady. Set your own psychological price targets: for example, I won’t buy if it drops below a certain point, and I won’t sell if it rises above a certain point. No one can buy at the absolute bottom or sell at the absolute top; just act when it reaches your expected level.

All of the above are personal opinions, not investment advice!!!