The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma: mounting inflation pressures and bleak prospects for rate cuts. On April 5th, economists forecast that the US March CPI will increase by 1% month-over-month, marking the largest single-month rise since 2022, with core CPI potentially rising by 0.3%. All of this stems from the surge in energy prices triggered by the Iran conflict—US oil prices have already risen by about $1 per gallon. The core PCE index is expected to increase by 0.4% for three consecutive months, indicating that even before the conflict, the process of inflation easing has stalled. The stabilization of the labor market and new inflation risks from the Middle East war suggest that the Federal Reserve may not be able to quickly cut rates, and tightening policies could continue. The increasing complexity of the global economy means the Fed’s choices will directly impact market trends. The demand for safe-haven assets in the crypto market may therefore rise, especially amid this uncertainty.