Analysis $ETH According to Star Line: Short-Term Important Price Zone and Waiting Point for Bear Cycle

Based on the “star line” structure and key technical markers, the current picture of $ETH shows the market is moving closer to decisive zones for both the short term and the medium term. Important Price Zones in the Short Term On the larger time frame, the 736 USD level is considered an extreme theoretical zone. However, the probability of price being pushed that deeply is not high. Instead, the area worth starting to allocate capital to lies between above 1.100 USD. Currently, the 1.728 USD zone is the “peak volume gap” on the monthly time frame—meaning, in theory, there is demand to rebound and fill it. If the market continues to correct, the “stair-step” support zones are located at: 1.475 USD1.328 USD1.196 USD1.125 USD These are all zones where you can consider placing buy orders in portions, rather than going all-in at once. Star Line and Strong Structure Zone 1.115–1.130 According to the star line structure, the bearish leg has already reached the 7.5 line milestone, with: 8 line at around 1.567 USD9 line at around 1.115 USD However, the significance of this 9 line is weakened by the existence of an important historical bottom around 1.128 USD—a zone viewed as the “manipulation bottom” in the prior bear cycle, where large inflows once accumulated heavily. In other words, the 1.115–1.130 USD area is an extremely important structural zone. This is not a zone that can be pierced through easily without a major shift in the flow of capital. Milestone for the Strength of the Rebound In the short term, you need to watch two levels: 1.891 USD1.826 USD The price reaction here will indicate whether the current rebound is a weak bounce or whether it has the potential to expand into a more significant recovery phase. If the market can’t break through these two levels decisively, the probability that it’s just “pumping up to unload again” will be higher. Has ETH Really “Changed Hands”? Many believe ETH has “changed hands” because it’s been suppressed for too long. Comparing this to how BTC was compressed at 73.059 USD for years before breaking out, the question is: why has ETH been held back by the 9 line for so long? It’s possible the issue isn’t whether it has changed hands, but that the structure of the capital flow has changed. BTC has gradually become a core asset of global liquidity, with a clear macro narrative and strong institutional allocation logic. In recent years, ETH has had its attention scattered by new chains, L2s, and many other narratives, causing the capital to no longer be concentrated like before. When capital fragments, the technical compression tends to persist longer. Conclusion Technical analysis isn’t everything, but the cost trail and accumulation zones of large capital always leave their mark on the chart. The market may not follow theory exactly, but it will certainly orbit around cost basis. For $ETH, the 1.115–1.130 USD zone is the structural area to watch for the bear cycle, while 1.891 and 1.826 USD will determine the strength of the short-term rebound. It’s fine if you don’t see a “change of hands.” As long as you can read the trail of the game at the key price zones—that’s enough. $ETH {spot}(ETHUSDT)