International gold retreated to around 4600. April trend forecast:

Approximately 30% chance of rebound to 5000 (short-term macro coordination needed, quite challenging)
Approximately 40% chance of further decline to 4300 (monitor non-farm payrolls and geopolitical situations)

Global central bank activity: Gold purchases slowed significantly in early 2026, with a net buy of only 5 tons in January (less than 20% of last year's monthly average). Russia, Kazakhstan, and others reduced holdings slightly, and Poland plans to sell part of its gold reserves. However, large-scale sell-offs are unlikely, and total gold purchases for the year may still remain above 800 tons.