Are you bullish or bearish today? — Three signals pointing the way on the eve of the battle between bulls and bears

April 4th, the market stands at a crossroads. Over the past three days, crypto investors have experienced a rollercoaster: U.S.-Iran tensions reversed, oil prices surged past $110, and non-farm payrolls data exceeded expectations. BTC has been oscillating between 66,500 and 69,500, with neither side able to secure a decisive victory.

Today, I see sideways movement with a bearish bias. There are three reasons.

Signal One: Non-farm payrolls still influencing the market

March non-farm added 178k jobs, well above expectations. The rate cut expectations have basically disappeared, and the dollar index remains above 100. Although U.S. stock markets are closed on Friday, the futures market has already reacted — S&P 500 futures down 0.3%, Nasdaq futures down 0.4%. When the markets open on Monday, risk assets are likely to come under pressure. As the most liquidity-sensitive sector, the crypto market will find it hard to remain unaffected.

Signal Two: Oil prices remain high, inflation expectations hard to cool

WTI crude oil stays above $108, and spot Brent crude remains near $135. As long as the situation in the Strait of Hormuz doesn’t ease, oil prices will struggle to fall. High oil prices = high inflation = Fed not cutting rates. This logical chain cannot be broken in the short term. For the crypto market, which relies on loose liquidity narratives, this is the most fundamental bearish factor.

Signal Three: Technicals are weak, rebounds lack strength

BTC rebounded to $69,500 yesterday but quickly retreated, failing to hold above the 4-hour EMA50. Currently, the price hovers around $68,000, RSI at only 43, and MACD remains below the zero line. The daily candles have shown long upper shadows for three consecutive days, indicating heavy selling pressure above. If the price cannot recover $69,000 today, it will likely test the $66,000 support next week.

But there are also bullish reasons not to ignore

First, Bitcoin has repeatedly found support around $66,000–$66,500, forming a short-term bottom. Second, ongoing geopolitical conflicts may lead some funds to view BTC as “digital gold” for safe-haven purposes. Third, weekend liquidity is lower, and bears may lack the conviction to push prices down, possibly leading to a technical rebound.

Today’s trading advice

In the short term, bearish bias prevails, but aggressive shorting is not recommended. Consider short positions around $69,000–$69,500 with a stop-loss above $71,000, targeting $66,500. Long positions should wait until the price stabilizes above $69,500 or retests near $66,000 with light positions.

A more conservative approach is to stay on the sidelines. Weekend news is highly uncertain, with U.S.-Iran potentially issuing new statements at any time. Wait until Monday’s market open for clearer direction.

Today, I see sideways movement with a bearish bias, but the real battle will be decided next week.

#今日你看漲還是看跌？