📊 Wolf Analysis | 2026.04.03 18:46 GMT+8

Market

24h Price Change

BTC $66,828 (+1.04%)🟢

ETH $2,057 (+1.42%)🟢

SOL $79.81 (+2.11%)🟢

BNB $585 (+1.27%)🟢

1h Trend: The latest 1-hour chart shows a clear spike and pullback pattern. BTC surged from $67,017 to a high of $67,370, then quickly retreated to $66,828. Trading volume soared from 215 BTC to 525 BTC (+144%), confirming volume expansion with stagnation in price; ETH spiked to $2,081 before falling back to $2,057; SOL reached a high of $80.91 before rapidly dropping to $79.81; BNB hit $590.31 before retracing. The pattern of successive highs being broken and then quickly falling back is a typical bull trap structure.

15m Trend: The latest 15-minute chart shows BTC dropping sharply from $67,115 to $66,828, with a trading volume of 390 BTC, the largest single trade volume today; ETH fell from $2,067 to $2,057; SOL from $80.23 to $79.81; BNB from $587.96 to $585.85. After a spike, there was a rapid sell-off, trapping short-term bulls.

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Market Drivers

① Trump hints at "Seizing the Hormuz Oil," causing oil prices to surge

Multiple media outlets, including Forbes, report: Trump stated the U.S. will "Take the Oil," and said "give it a little more time" before executing. BBC also reports that the U.S. can "easily" open the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's geopolitical risk continues to rise, and institutions are taking the opportunity to go long on crude oil futures (CL).

② Fiscal Year 2027 Budget: Major increase in military spending, significant cuts to civilian programs

White House budget documents show: Defense budget request reaches $1.5 trillion (a record high), F-35 fighter jets increased from 47 to 85 units, and the "Golden Dome" missile defense system allocated $17.5 billion. At the same time, a proposal to cut non-defense spending by 10% and cancel nearly 30 Department of Justice grants. Fiscal expansion and a strong military stance are confirmed, with inflation expectations reinforced again.

③ U.S. Non-farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate data rebound beyond expectations, driven by end of strikes and rising temperatures

March non-farm employment added 178k jobs, and the unemployment rate was 4.3%. After the data release, BTC surged then retraced, testing the 15-minute support at 66,600. Healthy employment data will strengthen the Fed's case for rate hikes to curb inflation, although the latest news suggests the Fed is inclined to keep policy "on hold." However, market bears continue to add positions, wary of key support levels breaking in the future.

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⚠️ Risk Reminder

• The 1-hour chart shows a clear "bull trap" pattern, with signals of a spike and pullback leaning bearish

• Volume significantly increased at high levels, caution needed for further downside risk

• BTC $65,500-$67,500 remains the core consolidation zone, focus on selling high and buying low

• Strong non-farm payroll data may lead to increased volatility

• Rising oil prices → Reinforced inflation expectations → Further delay in Fed rate cuts