Oil Market
International oil prices surged sharply on Thursday: WTI crude rose by more than 13% and closed at $112.06 per barrel, recording the largest one-day gain since 2020; Brent futures rose by 7.78% to $109.03 per barrel. The reason is U.S. President Trump’s promise to continue strikes against Iran and the lack of deadlines for ending the conflict or opening the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said that over the next two to three weeks there will be extremely tough strikes, promising to push Iran back to the “Stone Age,” which heightened fears of prolonged disruptions in oil supplies. Despite the fact that Iran and Oman are preparing a protocol to monitor the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, traders shifted their focus to the vulnerability of Iran’s oil infrastructure. Recently, the spreads between U.S. oil and Brent reached their highest levels in a year, and the premium of near-term contracts over longer-dated ones also set an absolute record. Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Logan noted that accelerating the conflict’s end could have limited impact on the economy, but overall the outlook remains unclear. Citi expects that the average baseline price of Brent in the second half of the year will be $95, and in an optimistic scenario — $130; JPMorgan expects that in the short term oil could rise to $120–130, and if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed until mid-May — then also exceed $150.

International News
The probability of the Fed rate remaining unchanged in April is 99.5%, and the likelihood of a rate hike this year has increased to 14.7%
According to CME FedWatch: the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in April is 0.5%, unchanged — 99.5%. By June, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 6.0%, unchanged — 93.5%, and a 25 basis point increase — 0.5%. By December, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 35.1% (the day before — 25.1), unchanged — 50.2% (the day before — 73), an increase — 14.7% (the day before — 1.9).
The Russian presidential aide stated that the Strait of Hormuz is open to Russia
Russian Presidential Aide Ushakov told Russian media that the Strait of Hormuz is open to Russian ships. He also noted that the situation in the Middle East remains complex. Additionally, he mentioned that the US has not approached Russia with requests for mediation to resolve the situation in the Middle East. (CCTV News)
US Army attacked Iranian bridge, new strikes on infrastructure expected
According to Axios, on Thursday, U.S. military forces struck a key civilian infrastructure target in Iran for the first time, a few hours after President Trump’s threat to “push Iran back to the Stone Age.” The strike on the B-1 bridge near Tehran indicates an expansion of U.S. military targets and could mark the beginning of attacks on energy, hydroelectric, and transportation infrastructure. A Pentagon spokesperson said further strikes on bridges are possible. The bridge was targeted because Iranian armed forces used it to transport missiles and components from Tehran to the western part of the country. Components were transported in large boxes and containers, assembled at the launch site. The bridge was also used to supply the Iranian military in Tehran.
Iran attacked Oracle and Amazon data centers in the region
On the evening of April 2, the IRGC Navy command issued a statement about strikes on Oracle’s data