Be patient and wait for the bottom of $BTC and the U.S. stock market

Looking from a broader time horizon, the market’s current decline phase is not something unexpected. As far back as the end of last year, many signals had already pointed to the risk of a pullback in U.S. stocks. For the crypto market, a cautious trend had also emerged from around September–October of the year before.

At present, many opinions suggest that the main reason comes from geopolitical tensions. However, this may only be the “spark” that ignites the downward momentum, not the core cause itself. Behind this correction is the combined effect of multiple factors: Technical signals had been warning in advanceThe market entered the midterm election cycle in the U.S.Inflationary pressure is returning, forcing central banks to maintain a “hawkish” stanceCrude oil prices surged sharply, amplifying inflation pressure and macro risks

What Adjustment Range Could Be Possible? Based on historical data, in midterm election years, the S&P 500 often experiences an average correction of around 15%. However, if viewed in the context of oil prices climbing as they are now, the decline could be deeper.

During previous oil crises, this index had recorded an average drop close to 30%. Therefore, if the market this time corrects within the 15–30% range, that would still be a reasonable scenario—not necessarily a “black swan.”

Even if the decline goes beyond current expectations, it could open up a good opportunity again for long-term capital flows.

Strategy: Don’t Wait for the Perfect Bottom Instead of trying to catch a “perfect bottom,” a more reasonable strategy is to observe the market’s moves step by step, wait for signals that confirm the bottoming area, and gradually allocate funds in stages throughout the year.

For Bitcoin, there is currently not enough basis to claim that it has formed a bottom. The macro structure, technical signals, and the overall risk environment have all yet to send a clear reversal signal.

BTC’s Cycle and Correction Magnitude Bitcoin’s previous down cycles have often lasted over 10 months.The current cycle is only about 6 months.In history, BTC has typically dropped by at least 70% from the peak in bear markets.This time, the current decline is only about 53%.

Although the correction amplitude tends to narrow across each cycle, at this point it’s still difficult to confirm that the market has completed the bottom-forming process.

Long-Term Accumulation Zone A cautious view holds that when the correction reaches 60% or more, the market may begin moving into a long-term allocation zone. However, to confirm a major bottom with a cyclical nature, more clear long-term signals are still needed.

The accumulation zone is maintained in the range of 40,000 – 50,000 USD, using a phased allocation strategy, without rushing. In a period of intense volatility like this, patience and discipline may be more important than trying to accurately predict the exact bottom. {spot}(BTCUSDT)