#April Market Outlook

Regarding the three questions discussed this period, my answers are straightforward:

1️⃣ Will Iran and the U.S. truly cease fire this month?

Yes, at least a "de facto ceasefire."

Both sides have motivations: Iran needs sanctions relief, and the U.S. aims to create an "end to the war" atmosphere before the elections. The 2-3 week timeline suggests that large-scale actions are unlikely within April. As for a full agreement implementation, that’s a longer-term matter, but for the market, “no fighting” is already enough.

2️⃣ Is the crypto market bullish or bearish this month?

Bullish, but cautiously so.

Short-term sentiment has support, macro factors (interest rate cut expectations) are shifting, and technically, BTC is stabilizing at a key level. However, there are several variables to watch in April:

· Earnings season in US stocks may drain some liquidity
· Miner selling pressure post-halving has not fully dissipated
· Profit-taking after positive news releases

So, the likely trend is moderate upward movement, with repeated tests near previous highs. A breakout will require new catalysts.

3️⃣ Which sectors are worth positioning?

I focus on two areas:

🔹 RWA (Real World Assets)
Rising expectations for rate cuts → US Treasury yields decline → RWA protocols become more attractive → capital flows in. This transmission chain is very clear, and RWA is currently one of the few sectors with real yields that institutions can understand.

🔹 AI + DePIN
If US tech stocks rebound in April, the narrative will spill over. The AI sector has long lacked a “landing moment” in crypto, and DePIN conveniently offers a hardware story. Some projects have recently launched mainnets or products, worth paying attention to.

Finally, a word:

This round of “dove of peace” market trend is essentially the market re-pricing the macro environment. Instead of guessing the top, it’s better to identify the main theme clearly. Wishing everyone a smooth April!