Morning Data Preview: Tonight's Data Releases Are Coming Rapidly, and the Market Script Is Already Written

1. 20:15 U.S. March ADP Employment Change (Small Non-Farm)
My forecast is 38,000, below the market expectation of 40,000. March non-farm payroll growth is marginally slowing, service sector employment momentum is weakening, and ADP is likely to continue its weakness, slightly reinforcing expectations of a rate cut in June, providing short-term support for the market.
2. 20:30 U.S. February Retail Sales MoM
Expectation is 0.3%, significantly below the market forecast of 0.5%. January has already turned negative, consumer confidence has declined, and durable goods sales are slowing. Weak data will confirm economic slowdown, which is the most important positive factor for the market tonight.
3. 21:45 U.S. March S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final
Expectation is 52.5, a slight upward revision from the initial 52.4. Manufacturing remains in a moderate expansion zone, and the revision indicates resilience, with limited impact on the market, only slightly offsetting the market gains.
4. 22:00 U.S. March ISM Manufacturing PMI
Expectation is 52.3, below the market forecast of 52.5. Marginal weakening in new orders and employment components, slight decline in business confidence, and weak data will reinforce expectations of economic slowdown, resonating with ADP and retail sales as positive signals.