Cardano (ADA) Price Outlook: Recovery Attempt, But Still Weak

Cardano is showing a slight recovery after two weeks of decline and is trading just above $0.24. On-chain and derivatives indicators have improved, hinting at a possible bounce, but the overall trend remains weak, so caution is still advised.

According to Santiment, some large holders are accumulating again. Wallets with 100K to 1M ADA and those holding 10M to 100M ADA have added about 230 million tokens recently. Meanwhile, wallets with 1M to 10M ADA sold roughly 30 million tokens, probably during a phase of capitulation. This pattern suggests that stronger holders are buying at lower prices, which might support a recovery if it continues.

Looking at derivatives, CoinGlass reports the long-to-short ratio at 1.14, close to a one-month high, indicating that more traders are betting on a price rise. CryptoQuant data is mostly neutral but leans slightly bullish, showing some whale activity though no clear confirmation yet.

Technically, the market is still in a short-term downtrend marked by lower highs and lows from the 0.276 level. The recent rise from 0.240 appears to be more of a relief bounce after a liquidity flush than a real reversal. The price is now testing resistance between 0.250 and 0.255, where a descending trendline meets short-term moving averages.

Key levels to watch include resistance at 0.250–0.255, with stronger selling pressure expected between 0.260 and 0.276. Support is around 0.240, and falling below that could open the way down to 0.228–0.220.

Momentum is still weak. The RSI is slightly better but not yet in bullish territory, and buying pressure remains limited.

If the price gets rejected at 0.250–0.255, the downtrend will likely continue toward 0.240, and a further breakdown could deepen losses. On the other hand, a break and hold above 0.255 could shift the short-term trend to bullish, with potential targets around 0.260 and 0.276.

At this stage, it’s best to treat rallies as opportunities to sell. Avoid chasing long positions for now. Wait for a clear rejection at resistance or a confirmed breakout before adjusting your stance.

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