ETH: Not falling further, ready to buy the dip? The big players are actually watching you from above and laughing.

At noon, I went downstairs for a walk. A few people just finished eating. When they saw me, they asked if I wanted to play a game of Guandan. I’m not really into playing that. But now, everyone is playing everywhere.

Two groups of big brothers, I’m with Sister Lime. Big Brother B drove a BYD Song. He asked me if driving a Tesla on long trips causes range anxiety. I said I haven’t heard that term in a long time. Now, there are countless charging stations at service areas, and you can fully charge while you pee and eat.

I told him to believe that the smartest and wealthiest people in the world exist. I’m now using FSD every day. Let me put it this way: it’s safer than I am. I sometimes get distracted or check my phone, but it’s not. It’s always working seriously, and safety is always the top priority.

People have emotions—they can be greedy or scared—but the underlying logic remains cold and unchanging. After playing cards, Big Brother A talked about recent market changes.
The topic kept circling back to money in our hands. At the 2024 gathering, Brother Niu said something that resonated with me: over the past two years, the most important insight is that asset allocation is more crucial than tactics or strategies.
Why did he mention this? Because from 2021 to 2024, the stock market has been declining. But some people’s assets have been hitting new highs. Because they are globally diversified.

In the past, Brother Niu didn’t agree with this. The Qingzhou teacher who helped me with asset allocation once said a very clear-headed thing: a sign of maturity is realizing that our parents are ordinary people, we are ordinary people, our children are ordinary people, and our country is an ordinary country. So, when investing, we should choose the top players, not necessarily the ones right in front of us.

For this reason, I even wrote an article stating that every losing retail investor is paying for their own cognition—just two words: deserved.

People should never confine themselves to their own village, nor always think their village is the best. When I went back to my hometown to pay respects at the grave, my dad sighed and said, “The village has paved asphalt roads, even with lane markings, and there will probably be traffic lights soon. But no one lives here anymore.”

No matter how good the village is, we won’t go back. Why do we always say “vote with your feet”? What does that mean? It means, without barriers, the direction you walk is the direction of civilization.

The market’s sniffing ability always outpaces human feet. The smartest and biggest money always goes to places without barriers and where harvesting the most efficiently.

This logic applies equally to trading. Watching the flashing red and green numbers on the screen is basically a group of people pocketing each other at the card table. Yesterday, the $ETH market maker at the 1966 level aggressively dumped a panic sell-off.

It’s like those big bosses in real life liquidating bankrupt companies—forcing you into a corner and taking all the blood-stained chips at bargain prices.

And after that? Now the price has bounced back to around 2005, wavering.

Many people see this and think, “Oh, it can’t fall further,” and start secretly testing the waters with some funds. It’s like seeing the asphalt roads in the village and thinking everything is getting better, ready to go all-in and buy the dip.

But in reality, they’re watching you from above and laughing. The macro trend still shows a downward slope with lower highs and lower lows.

This few-point rebound is just a small treat for the desperate. The main players are lurking above at the 2020 to 2040 level.

This is the death line where those trapped above are desperately hoping to break free. When you excitedly climb up, the big players will draw a big pie for you, pretending to break out, tricking you into buying in, then smashing all the heavy burdens right on your head.

After that, they’ll go back to the 1900 support level.

It’s the same principle as doing business—cleaning out everything, leaving no bones behind. So, don’t chase the high in the short term.

📌 Tactics and key levels reference
Tactical direction: High altitude
Hunter zone: 2025 - 2040
Logic: They’ve set a trap above, rushing upward is like rushing to your death.
Stop-loss line: Breakthrough 2072
Logic: If it breaks this level, admit you were wrong; protecting your life is more important, don’t hold the position.
Profit-taking zone: 1975 partial profit / 1918 full exit

My ex-girlfriend in Japan once shared a very good perspective. We must think about whether our emotions and preferences are based on ourselves or influenced by external conditioning. One is genuine feedback of liking or not, the other is learned behavior.

Trading is no different—it’s also about looking inward.

K-line charts are mirrors, reflecting your greed, anger, and ignorance.