#美联储加息预期再起

The Sound of a New Era in Global Markets

As we entered 2026, the strongest narrative in global markets was based on interest rate cuts. However, as of March, this narrative is rapidly reversing. Expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may raise interest rates again are gaining strength, and this shift is beginning to reshape not only traditional markets but also crypto assets and the entire global economy.

A Turnaround in Fed Policy: From “Higher for Longer” to a Return to Tightening?

The Fed kept its policy interest rate stable at 3.50–3.75% at its March 2026 meeting. However, this decision was not the beginning of a loosening cycle; rather, it signaled a “wait-and-see” period of deepening uncertainty.

Even more striking is the sharp shift in market expectations. According to the futures market, the probability of at least one interest rate hike in 2026 has risen above 50%.

Three key factors are behind this shift:

**Stick-on inflation:** Inflation remains above the 2% target and is stuck in the 2.5-3% range.

**Energy shock:** Developments in the Middle East are driving up oil prices, fueling inflation again.

**Geopolitical risks:** Tensions with Iran and trade policies are increasing cost pressures.

Fed officials also confirm this picture. The renewed rise in inflation expectations, in particular, is pushing policymakers towards a more cautious and even hawkish position.

**Impacts on the Global Economy:** Being Stuck Between Growth and Inflation

The renewed possibility of an interest rate hike represents a "two-pronged risk" for the global economy.

On the one hand, tight monetary policy:

Slows growth by suppressing demand

Increases financing costs

Restricts corporate investment

On the other hand, lack of easing:

May lead to persistent inflation

May disrupt consumer expectations

According to the OECD, if energy prices remain high, US inflation could rise to 4.2% and growth could fall to around 2%

While this picture is not a classic "stagflation risk," it points to an increasingly difficult balance between growth and inflation.

Stocks and Financial Markets: Risk Appetite Shrinking

Changes in interest rate expectations are putting pressure, especially on risky assets. Following the Fed signals in March:

US stock markets fell

Bond yields rose

Mortgage interest rates reached a 6-month high of 6.5%

The fundamental reason for this is simple:

As interest rates rise, the present value of future cash flows decreases.

Technology stocks and growth-oriented companies are particularly affected by this environment.

Crypto Markets: From the Age of Liquidity to Selective Capital

The relationship between Fed policy and crypto markets is now much clearer:

1. Interest Rate Increase = Decreased Liquidity

Crypto markets are largely dependent on global liquidity. Expectations of interest rate increases:

Strengthen the dollar

Trigger an exit from risky assets

Push institutional investors towards "cash conversion"

Indeed, after the last Fed meeting, Bitcoin fell by approximately 5%, and significant outflows from ETFs were observed.

2. Change in Institutional Behavior

In a high-interest rate environment:

Bonds become more attractive

A "risk-free yield" alternative emerges

The portfolio share allocated to crypto decreases

3. Period of Selective Divergence

However, not all crypto assets react in the same way. For example:

Ethereum remains more resilient thanks to staking returns.

Yield-bearing assets are gaining prominence.

This indicates that the crypto market is no longer a "one-way rising" market, but a selective market sensitive to macroeconomic conditions.

The New Paradigm: The World of "Interest Rates Will Remain High"

The increasingly accepted scenario in the markets is this:

Interest rates will not fall in the short term, and may even be raised again if necessary.

This new paradigm leads to the following consequences:

The dollar strengthens → capital outflows from emerging markets increase.

Liquidity decreases → speculative assets are suppressed.

Real returns gain importance → dividends, interest, and staking come to the forefront.

However, there is a critical balance here. If the Fed tightens too much:

The risk of recession increases.

This brings easing policies back onto the agenda.

In other words, the markets are currently in a period of "policy oscillation."

Conclusion: Strategic Transformation in an Age of Uncertainty

The #FedRateHikeExpectationsResurface hashtag essentially says one thing:
Markets are returning to inflation-fighting mode.

In this new era:

Macroeconomic data is more important than ever for investors.

The crypto market is no longer independent of the Fed.

The "cheap money" era may be over for stock markets.

The decisive question in the coming period is:
Will inflation win, or will growth?

The answer to this question will determine not only interest rate decisions but also the direction of all asset classes, from Bitcoin to Nasdaq.