#OilPricesResumeUptrend

#OilPricesResumeUptrend — Market Near $100 as War-Driven Rally Intensifies
Oil Near Triple Digits — Momentum Still Building
Crude oil is now trading around $97.62, putting the market just a step away from reclaiming the critical $100 level. This zone is not just psychological—it acts as a momentum trigger where breakout flows, hedge activity, and speculative buying tend to accelerate sharply. The recent rally has been aggressive, and despite minor pullbacks, the structure remains firmly bullish with buyers consistently stepping in on dips. This suggests that the market is not yet exhausted and could be preparing for another leg higher.

The Core Driver — Geopolitics Controlling the Market
The ongoing conflict centered around the Strait of Hormuz continues to dominate price action. With a significant portion of global oil supply disrupted, the market is being driven less by traditional demand-supply cycles and more by geopolitical risk premium. As long as this chokepoint remains unstable, oil prices will likely stay elevated with sudden spikes on any escalation headlines.

Short-Term Outlook — Where Can Price Go Next?
From the current $97.62 level, the market is sitting just below a breakout zone. If momentum continues and price sustains above $100, the next upside targets quickly open toward the $105–$110 range, where historical resistance and liquidity clusters exist. In a stronger continuation scenario—especially if geopolitical tensions escalate further—prices could extend toward the $120+ zone, revisiting extreme levels seen during past supply shocks.

However, if the market fails to hold above $100 and faces temporary easing in tensions, a short-term pullback toward the $90–$92 support zone is possible. Even in that case, the broader structure remains bullish unless there is a major geopolitical resolution.

Supply Shock Still Unresolved
Despite small adjustments from OPEC+, the global supply gap remains significant. Alternative routes and reserves are unable to fully replace the disrupted flows, keeping the market structurally tight. This ongoing imbalance is the key reason why dips are being bought aggressively and why downside remains limited for now.

Economic Pressure Building Globally
Higher oil prices are already feeding into inflation, transportation costs, and global supply chains. Central banks like the Federal Reserve are now facing increased pressure as energy-driven inflation complicates policy decisions. Emerging markets are particularly vulnerable, with rising import costs and currency pressure adding another layer of risk to the global economy.

Volatility Trigger — Diplomacy vs Escalation
The biggest wildcard remains geopolitics. Any positive diplomatic development could quickly cool prices, while further escalation could send oil sharply higher in a very short time. This creates a highly reactive market environment where sentiment can shift rapidly on headlines

.
Final Take — $100 Is the Battlefield
Oil at $97.62 is not just a number—it’s a launchpad. The market is approaching a key breakout zone, and the reaction around $100 will likely define the next major move. A clean break above could accelerate the rally toward $110 and beyond, while rejection may trigger a temporary pullback—but not necessarily a trend reversal.

Right now, this is not a normal market—it’s a geopolitical-driven rally with structural supply constraints, and until the situation around the Strait of Hormuz stabilizes, the upside risk in oil remains firmly intact.