🌙 Evening Market Outlook

1. Core Conclusion: Stay firmly on the sidelines, the downtrend is not over
Stop trying to buy the dip against the trend! In the face of a clear downtrend, any “bottom guessing” is just cleverness at play.
Without a clear sign of a reversal, blindly entering the market will only lead to losses. Think carefully about your trading logic.
2. Market Review: The trend has broken, bears dominate
• After Bitcoin broke below the wedge pattern, two attempts at a rebound failed, and it never managed to return inside the wedge;
• Subsequently, it broke below the key support at 68,844, and the rebound attempt to reclaim this resistance also failed;
• Then it broke below the previous isolated low of 68,141, creating a new low, with the bulls’ defense line gradually collapsing.
3. Key levels and future projections
1. The previous low of 67,300 is a critical threshold
◦ If it falls below 67,300: The long-term bullish trend marked by the large red box in the chart is completely over, with the next target at 65,971. Look for signs of a bottom in this zone;
◦ If it does not fall below / quickly recovers after a false break: To attempt a rebound, it must first stabilize within the 68,141–68,844 range, then look toward the lower boundary of the wedge at 69,355, and ultimately challenge 70,058;
◦ If it cannot return inside the wedge: All upward moves are just technical rebounds after a decline and do not indicate a trend reversal.
2. Signals on different timeframes
◦ 1-hour chart: Only if it breaks above and stabilizes at 68,472 can we look upward toward 69,171–70,163. If it cannot hold, then no further analysis.
◦ 4-hour chart: Has already broken below the Fibonacci 78.6% level in a solid manner, with three consecutive candles closing below it. The bullish trend is officially over, trend reversal to bearish. If it breaks below 67,300 again, the downside target is 65,902–65,051.
4. Trading recommendations (only follow the trend, avoid betting on reversals)
• For those without positions:
1. Be patient and wait for a rebound: When it reaches 68,961, take a small short position (half position) on the left side;
2. Or wait for confirmation: If it breaks below 67,300 and then rebounds but cannot recover, chase the short on the right side;
3. In either case, set stop-loss orders and strictly control risk.
• For those holding positions:
Continue holding short positions, follow the trend, and take profits. Don’t get shaken out by small rebounds.
5. Final reminder
In this bearish market, do not try to bottom fish until there are clear signs of a reversal or bottom formation!
Don’t think that a deep decline will automatically lead to a rebound—often, the decline is just beginning.
Meeting adjourned.