Gold Market Outlook on Upcoming Trends

Gold and silver have just experienced a significant rebound, mainly driven by news of a one-month ceasefire proposal and 15 negotiation conditions put forward by Donald Trump. However, it’s important to note that this is a political signal and can change very quickly.
Removing this unexpected “peace signal,” the recent rise in precious metals is primarily a technical recovery after a period of overselling. This rally does not yet provide enough basis to confirm that the correction has fully ended.
Currently, it’s still too early to say that the precious metals market has stabilized. Especially given the unpredictable statements and actions from Trump, investors should remain highly cautious. This is not the phase to confidently invest heavily.
Technical Analysis: The 4,500 USD Level Is Critical
Currently, gold prices have recovered to nearly 4,600 USD — corresponding to the first Fibonacci retracement level in the recent correction. The total rebound is about 500 USD per ounce.
A high-probability scenario is that the market will need more time to consolidate and absorb supply after the strong rally before testing the 4,700 USD level again.
However, the short-term trend depends heavily on the 4,500 USD support level — an important support zone. If gold cannot hold this level in the coming trading sessions, it’s likely the market will revisit the early-week bottom around 4,100 USD.
If the 4,500 USD level is broken, and if US-Iran negotiations do not show positive progress (a scenario with high probability), the risk of a sharp decline back to 4,100 USD will increase.
Mid-term Outlook: The 4,650 – 4,800 USD Range
Looking further into April, the reasonable target zone for the upward trend remains in the 4,650 – 4,800 USD range.
Notably, the 4,800 USD level is an important price zone that formed in January and February this year. It could become a strong selling pressure area:
Long-term investors may take the opportunity to break even and exit.
Short-term traders are likely to take profits at this level.
Therefore, if gold moves into the 4,650 – 4,800 USD zone, the market could face significant selling pressure.
Conclusion
The current rebound in gold is driven by technical factors and heavily influenced by geopolitical developments. The 4,500 USD level remains a vital short-term support, while the 4,650 – 4,800 USD zone will be a major test if the upward trend continues.
Given the high uncertainty, the prudent strategy now is to maintain discipline, implement strict risk management, and avoid chasing prices. The market has not yet entered a safe phase for heavy investment.
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