Coin Fear and Greed Index Records 17, Bitcoin Enters Technical Downtrend Amid Extreme Fear

Over the past year, the signals sent by the Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index have been clear. Fear or extreme fear has accounted for over 30% of the total readings, and the current index stands at 17, indicating a deepening state of extreme fear. Bitcoin is currently trading at about 44% below its all-time high of $70,710, reinforcing investors’ cautious attitude.

Warning Signs from the Coin Fear and Greed Index

Since the liquidation crash in October last year, fear has dominated the overall market. The prolonged extreme fear readings on the Coin Fear and Greed Index go beyond mere numbers, indicating structural weakness in the market. The current index at 17 suggests investor sentiment still shows no signs of recovery.

Interestingly, the U.S. stock market reflects a similar psychology. Despite the S&P 500 being only a few percentage points below its all-time high at around 6,827, the CNN Fear and Greed Index remains at 42, indicating fear. This suggests that cryptocurrency and traditional financial markets are exhibiting different psychological dynamics.

Technical Signals and Opportunities for Bitcoin Rebound

The death cross formed in November 2025 confirmed a technical downtrend for Bitcoin. This pattern, where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average, aligned with a local low around $80,000. Notably, all death crosses in this cycle since 2023 have marked significant local lows, reinforcing the signal as a contrarian indicator.

Recently, Bitcoin has been highly sensitive to geopolitical factors and U.S. policy changes. After the U.S. president announced the halt of attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure, Bitcoin maintained most of its gains above $70,000. Altcoins like Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin rose about 5%, and crypto mining stocks also showed broad strength alongside the stock market.

Variables That Will Shape Future Market Directions

Analysts believe Bitcoin’s next move depends on oil price trends and the stability of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. If external factors turn positive, there’s a possibility of retesting the $74,000 to $76,000 range. Conversely, if conditions worsen, prices could fall into the mid-$60,000s.

Ultimately, with the Coin Fear and Greed Index at extreme fear levels, whether technical signals act as contrarian indicators will be crucial in determining the market’s future direction. Cautious investor approaches and close monitoring of market variables are essential at this stage.